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Lib Dems get Vince-boost with PB/AR

March 31st, 2010

Angus Reid for Politicalbetting Mar 31 Mar 17
CONSERVATIVES 39%37% 39%
LABOUR 27%28% 26%
LIB DEMS 23%22% 21%
LAB to CON swing from 2005 –% 8%

And others drop sharply as well

With the election only days away from being called there’s a boost for the Lib Dems in the latest PB/Angus Reid poll.

The entire field-work took place yesterday and today and so was completed after Monday’s Channel 4 “Ask the Chancellors” debate.

A big feature in this latest poll is a sharp decline in the proportion going to others. This follows a period when AR was recording the biggest shares – that is now down to one of the lowest.

Labour also move up to their highest recorded level since AR started their UK polls last October.

In the run-up to the election AR have made a change to their geographical sampling approach. This is how they describe it:-

“……we believe that one of the most important ingredients of success in online polls is rigorous geographic sampling. This means not simply ensuring we have the appropriate number of respondents in a broad region, like London, but that we the right number of people in each part of London from Tower Hamlets to Croydon. In order to achieve that we have divided the 632 constituencies in Great Britain into 142 “Super Constituencies.”

Each of these “Super Constituencies” is made up of about four or five constituencies grouped together based on a combination of geography, demographics, income and political leaning. This approach means that no micro-political culture is missed, leading to more accurate results.”

This is how AR use operate their campaign polls in Canada where the firm has had great success.

I’ll update this post with the link to the detailed data when that becomes available later tonight.

Mike Smithson

Update (2045): Andy from Angus Reid has confirmed that the figures originally released hadn’t been fully adjusted.  The correct figures are now in the table.  David Herdson