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But YouGov has the Tories back in the 40s

April 5th, 2010
YG daily poll: The Sun Apr 5 Apr 2
CONSERVATIVES 41% 39%
LABOUR 31% 29%
LIB DEMS 18% 20%
LAB to CON swing from 2005 6% 6.5%

What do we make of the conflicting figures?

So there we have it – the YouGov daily poll where the fieldwork finished this evening showing very different numbers from the Guardian/ICM poll earlier with the margin down to just four points.

But like ICM the Labour share has increased with YouGov – so a similar trend.

A big difference might be the timing of the fieldwork. The latter took place throughout the holiday weekend finishing off towards the end of Easter Sunday. YouGov started last night and has continued through the day until about 5pm.

What is interesting is that the internet polls have the Tories in a much better position than ICM, who carries out its surveys on the phone.

We’ll get a clearer picture as the week goes on.

UPDATE: YouGov have introduced a change in methodology and are factoring in certainty to vote. The effect on this poll is to increase the Tory figure by one point.

Mike Smithson