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Will it be older voters that finally do for Mr. Brown?

April 6th, 2010

Message from Robert: I will be doing some minor site maintenance today ahead of the expected announcement this afternoon. Hopefully there won’t be any downtime. But, if there is, you know who to blame.

Brand Democracy/YG Mar 19 CON LAB LD OTH
45-54 year olds 32% 38% 17% 13%
55-64 year old 39% 27% 19% 15%
All 55 and over 46% 24% 16% 14%
All 65 and over 49% 23% 15% 13%
All 18+ 37% 31% 19% 13%

The over 55s give the blues a 22% lead

I’ve finally tracked down a two-part study, including a new 5,000 sample opinion poll, on how the 17 million voters aged 55 and over could impact on the general election outcome.

This has been commissioned by Age UK – the charity that’s being formed by the merger of Age Concern and Help the Aged – as part of an attempt to highlight the political importance of this growing segment of the electorate who are almost twice as likely to vote than 18-24 year olds.

To put it into context the studies show that a massive 8 out of 10 (13.4 million) of over 55s said they would definitely vote in the General Election compared to less than one in two 18-24 year olds (2.5 million).

The party splits are above and the key numbers are the over 55s and the over 65s. These won’t make good reading at Brown Central.

The online poll by Brand Democracy consisted of 3,376 members of the GB population. Fieldwork, which was carried out by YouGov, took place from 15th-19th March 2010. Alongside this, a booster sample of 1,865 over 55s was polled and the data weighted by declared votes in the 2005 General election.

  • Alongside the poll there’s a study by Dr. Scott Davidson of De Montfort University on how the average age of the electorate is “getting greyer” with projections on how this might impact on key marginal seats. He has prepared a special guest slot for PB which will be published tomorrow. He’ll be about to take part in an online Q&A.
  • Mike Smithson