Research by Dr Scott Davidson, De Montfort University

Although the ageing of the UK population is well documented, less well understood are the implications for a first past the post electoral system such as ours, with the importance of marginal seats in campaigning. My research suggests that Labour and the Liberal Democrats are defending 57 “grey marginals” against the apparent rise in vote share for the Conservatives since 2005.

A note on methods (more details in the full report). I have taken the age differences in turnout from 2005, and assumed these will remain. Of course, future numbers will vary, but at the moment there is no indication of a sudden uplift in the turnout rates of younger voters. The charts below show the estimated age breakdown of turnout for constituencies.

The definition of the grey vote is all voters 55+. This can be justified on several grounds; people in their 50s start to experience age discrimination in employment; they are approaching retirement and may be worried about pensions; and their own parents are likely to be in their 70s or 80s and may be requiring long-term care.

The Grey Marginals

Labour are defending 38 seats with notional majorities of 5,000 or less, but where it’s estimated that over half of turnout will be made up by the grey vote. What immediately stands out is that it is the Conservatives who are challenging in second place. (The only exceptions are the three seats in Wales.) Most of these seats were Labour gains in the landslide of 1997. A significant proportion are in the midlands and north west, and dominated by small towns or seats that are a mixture of suburban and rural wards. Perhaps the most interesting aspect is that they exist at all – a Lab-Con grey battleground is a new electoral phenomenon – if the Conservatives do win, then Labour’s recovery strategy, I suggest, will have to prioritise how it wins back older voters in seats such as these.

Parliamentary Constituency	2010 % t/o 55+	Winner 2005	2nd 2005	Majority	Majority (%)
Arfon	50.0	Lab	PC	456	1.8
City of Chester	51.5	Lab	Con	973	2.2
Stroud	55.0	Lab	Con	996	1.9
Aberconwy	61.5	Lab	Con	1,070	3.9
Hastings & Rye	56.2	Lab	Con	1,156	2.5
Ynys Môn	58.7	Lab	PC	1,242	3.5
Stourbridge	52.2	Lab	Con	1,280	2.9
Calder Valley	50.1	Lab	Con	1,303	2.7
Vale of Glamorgan	52.1	Lab	Con	1,574	3.4
High Peak	51.1	Lab	Con	1,750	3.8
Dorset South	59.6	Lab	Con	1,812	3.7
Stafford	53.4	Lab	Con	1,852	4.0
Brighton Kemptown	51.0	Lab	Con	1,853	4.8
Carmarthen West	58.9	Lab	Con	2,043	5.3
Wolverhampton SW	51.6	Lab	Con	2,114	5.3
Burton	50.5	Lab	Con	2,132	4.8
Pendle	50.6	Lab	Con	2,180	5.3
Rugby	52.0	Lab	Con	2,397	5.2
South Ribble	52.6	Lab	Con	2,528	5.4
Cleethorpes	55.0	Lab	Con	2,640	6.1
Dumfries & Galloway	53.5	Lab	Con	2,922	5.7
Great Yarmouth	59.0	Lab	Con	3,055	7.4
Brigg & Goole	55.0	Lab	Con	3,217	7.8
Dudley South	52.6	Lab	Con	3,222	8.9
Blackpool North	57.8	Lab	Con	3,241	8.5
Wirral South	59.2	Lab	Con	3,538	9.3
Halesowen	54.3	Lab	Con	4,010	9.7
Dudley North	52.4	Lab	Con	4,106	11.1
Swansea West	53.4	Lab	LD	4,269	12.9
Gedling	51.5	Lab	Con	4,335	9.6
NW Leicestershire	51.9	Lab	Con	4,477	9.5
Bolton North East	51.2	Lab	Con	4,527	12.0
Vale of Clwyd	58.4	Lab	Con	4,629	14.2
Barrow & Furness	55.4	Lab	Con	4,843	12.5
Morecambe	55.2	Lab	Con	4,849	11.7
Keighley	51.6	Lab	Con	4,852	10.5
Sefton Central	59.8	Lab	Con	4,950	12.0
Dover	57.3	Lab	Con	5,005	10.4

For the Liberal Democrats there has been a longer of history of battling with the Conservatives in grey seats. Indeed, with 19 grey marginals, this amounts to almost one third of their current parliamentary representation. Their battles with Tory challengers in these seats will have been a core concern for Lib Dem strategists. Their grey marginals are heavily concentrated in the south and south west, and they will have a special challenge in defending the two wholly new seats of York Outer and Chippenham.

Parliamentary Constituency	2010 % t/o 55+	Winner 2005	2nd 2005	Majority	Majority (%)
Westmorland & L’dale	61.8	LD	Con	806	1.7
Brecon & Radnorshire	61.5	LD	Con	3,905	10.2
Newton Abbot	61.3	LD	Con	4,830	10.5
Torbay	59.8	LD	Con	2,727	6.0
Cornwall North	59.8	LD	Con	2,892	6.9
Southport	59.6	LD	Con	3,838	9.3
Truro & Falmouth	58.3	LD	Con	3,931	9.3
Somerton & Frome	57.7	LD	Con	595	1.1
Camborne & Redruth	57.1	LD	Lab	2,733	7.1
Hereford & S H’shire	57.0	LD	Con	1,089	2.4
Ceredigion	57.0	LD	PC	218	0.6
Taunton Deane	56.1	LD	Con	1,868	3.3
Cheadle	55.3	LD	Con	3,672	7.4
Chippenham	53.4	LD	Con	2,183	4.7
Chesterfield	53.3	LD	Lab	2,733	6.4
York Outer	52.7	LD	Con	203	0.4
Romsey & Soton North	51.6	LD	Con	204	0.5
Cheltenham	50.4	LD	Con	316	0.7
East Dunbartonshire	50.1	LD	Lab	4,061	8.7

Grey Power?

It is now a feature of modern campaigns for commentators to proclaim older voters as one of the pivotal battlegrounds in determining the final outcome.

Certainly, it has been the recent drops in turnout amongst younger voters which has accelerated the impact of population ageing. Younger age groups in the 1970s showed lower turnout rates, but in subsequent elections and as they grew older their turnout increased. But, this trend seems to have been broken in the 1990s, and first time voters in 2001 maintained their low participation rates in 2005.

Older people are more likely to vote, join campaigns and contact elected representatives. They have higher levels of political literacy and are more likely to follow the campaign closely in the media. It would be a foolish strategist who ignored these voters. However, the grey power model is flawed. Older people are not homogenous in political attitudes nor do they vote as a single block who perceive a single shared interest. They are concerned about the prospects for their own children and grand-children and will be divided by hugely varying personal social and economic circumstances.

That said it is likely that parties can succeed if they adopt a sophisticated segmentation of voters by life stage. Furthermore, it is clear that there are issues that particularly impact on the quality of life for older voters, and if grey voters were to perceive one party to be discernibly stronger, or weaker, on those issues, this could become significant. Any party that scores badly with older voters is going to have to do remarkably well elsewhere to have even a remote aspiration of winning a majority in the Commons.

** The data was developed with support from Age Concern, who have used some of the findings for the launch of AGE UK, the new organisation that has arisen from their merger with Help the Aged.

Dr Scott Davidson

Twitter: @framingthedot