Archive for April, 2010

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The debate thread – continued…

Thursday, April 29th, 2010

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The Final Debate – the first thread

Thursday, April 29th, 2010

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Mike Smithson



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Labour unchanged in first post-Bigotgate poll

Thursday, April 29th, 2010
YouGov – the Sun Apr 29 Apr 28
CONSERVATIVES 34% 34%
LIB DEMS 28% 31%
LABOUR 27% 27%

So it’s the Yellows that take the hit!!

Well here it is – the first full voting intention survey after Mr. Brown/Mrs Duffy and Labour and the Tories are unchanged while Nick Clegg’s party goes down three.

Labour will be relieved though all the next polling will be after the debate.

Tonight’s debate on PB. New threads have been timed to be published automatically at 8.25 pm, 9.10pm and 9.55pm. Please switch at these times to ease the server pressure.

Mike Smithson



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Tories move back into the lead with Angus Reid

Thursday, April 29th, 2010
Angus Reid – The Economist Apr 26 Apr 20
CONSERVATIVES 33% 32%
LIB DEMS 30% 33%
LABOUR 23% 23%

Above is a new Angus Reid poll for this week’s Economist. Note that it is a touch out of date with the fieldwork ending last Monday.

As well as the Tories moving up and the Lib Dems moving down a key feature is that Labour are still down at 23%. The firm continues to record the smallest shares for Brown’s party.

In a an article on the polls the magazine notes: ” For our poll, Angus Reid showed people something like the ballot paper that each one would see in the polling booth, with the names of local candidates. Last year, in British Columbia, this approach produced unusually accurate results. This time they were little different from the firm’s more conventional efforts.”

We’ll see in just over a week’s time whether AR have been calling this correctly.

There will be a final AR poll for PB on Wednesday.

Tonight’s debate on PB. New threads have been times to be published automatically at 8.25 pm, 9.10pm and 9.55pm. Please switch at these times to ease the server pressure.

Mike Smithson



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Marf’s Thursday take

Thursday, April 29th, 2010

More from Marf can been seen here.

Site traffic hits new record. Yesterday the number of page downloads exceeded a third of a million – the highest ever in a 24 hour period. Thanks to some nifty work by my son, Robert, another server was brought into use and we just about coped.

My guess is that today could see a new record.

Mike Smithson



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The reds slip 2 with TNS-BMRB

Thursday, April 29th, 2010
TRS-BMRB Apr 27 Apr 20
CONSERVATIVES 34% 34%
LIB DEMS 30% 30%
LABOUR 27% 29%

There’s a new poll out from TNS-BMRB – the firm that operates on a face to face basis but where interviewees key in their voting intention responses in a confidential manner on a computer.

Not much change on the previous week apart from the drop in the Labour share. Note that fieldwork finished on Tuesday – the day before Mr. Brown went to Rochdale.

The first fully post-Bigotgate voting intention poll should be this evening’s YouGov daily poll

TNS-BMRB found that 2 out of every five Tory voters said their prime motivation was to get rid of Mr. Brown rather than it being a positive choice for the party.

Amongst those polls still to come today is an Angus Reid poll for the Economist. The final AR poll for PB will come on May 5. There’s also a MORI CON-LAB marginals poll.

Mike Smithson



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Welcome to final debate day Mr. Brown

Thursday, April 29th, 2010

At least he’s making the headlines!

This morning’s front pages were always going to be bloody for the PM and these won’t disappoint.

Even the ultra-loyal Daily Mirror had a problem with this story.

Maybe Brown is lucky that today is final debate day because at the least the media will have to move on. Tomorrow will all be about the this closing session which will frame the coverage for the final few days.

Just reflecting on what happened the shocking thing that Mrs. Duffy highlighted is that virtually all of Brown’s contacts during the campaign have been with hand-picked safe people.

What does it say about a Prime Minister and Labour Party leader who cannot be allowed to get near “ordinary” members of the public?

I wonder how those 313 Labour MPs who signed Mr. Brown’s nomination papers almost exactly three years ago are feeling this morning.

Didn’t they stop to wonder then why he was so desperate to have an uncontested leadership election?

A week today the polling stations will be opening.

Mike Smithson



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The overnight thread

Thursday, April 29th, 2010