Archive for April, 2010

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Lib Dems back in the 30s with YouGov and Harris

Wednesday, April 28th, 2010

But its CON up- LD down in YESTERDAY’s CR roly-poly poll

YouGov/The Sun Apr 28 Apr 27
CONSERVATIVES 34% 33%
LIB DEMS 31% 28%
LABOUR 27% 29%
Harris – Metro Apr 28 Apr 23
CONSERVATIVES 32% 34%
LIB DEMS 30% 29%
LABOUR 25% 26%
ComRes/ITV-The Independent Apr 27 Apr 26
CONSERVATIVES 36% 32%
LIB DEMS 26% 29%
LABOUR 29% 29%

So three new national voting intention polls showing sharply contrasting pictures of Lib Dem support where the differences might be explained by the fieldwork dates.

The ComRes survey, based on a new sample of 500 on Tuesday added to 500 from Monday, is showing the same broad trend that we saw in most of the polls last night and has Clegg’s party down sharply. But it is old.

Fieldwork for the YouGov daily poll finished today though I guess that not that many of those sampled took part after Mr. Brown met Mrs. Duffy. That should show up tomorrow.

There’s no detail yet of the Harris fieldwork dates though like other surveys from the firm it probably took place over an extended period.

There’s also the ICM Lib Dem marginals poll which seems to be suggesting that the Tories are holding their own defending seats against the yellows but Clegg’s party is doing well against Labour. I plan to cover this in more detail when the datasets are published.

Mike Smithson



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Are these the words that seal Brown’s post-election fate?

Wednesday, April 28th, 2010


BBC New Channel

What’ll it do to his plans to stay on?

In recent weeks Mr Brown has made a number of comments suggesting that he might want to stay on as Labour’s leader even if his party loses power May 6th.

He’s shown in the past that he’s a formidable force to deal and without this afternoon’s events in Rochdale he might just have stood a chance of remaining.

But this, surely, changes everything for it highlights he overwhelming weakness – the difficulties he has dealing with ordinary voters.

This evening: I’m off out to dinner and will be away for a couple of hours. An ICM poll of Lib Dem marginals is due as well as the regular daily surveys.

Mike Smithson



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The saga continues

Wednesday, April 28th, 2010



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Has his response made the situation worse?

Wednesday, April 28th, 2010


Click to play

This is Brown being interviewed down the line for Radio 2 shortly after the incident.

What’s striking here is the manner of his response – his apology was not really an apology at all. I just wonder whether this is making matters worse.

The problem, of course, is that this just reinforces the perceptions people have about him – from the way he spoke to his aide in the car to his comments about the broadcasters.

Meanwhile, Ladbrokes have further tightened the price on “bigoted women” being mention in tomorrow’s final debate. I got on at 6/1 – it’s now 3/1.

Mike Smithson



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Marf’s Wednesday take

Wednesday, April 28th, 2010

Originals and prints of Marf’s PB cartoons are available here.

The big story of the day, of course, has been Mr. Brown’s unguarded comments that were recorded about a woman he had been speaking to.



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How do the old firm respond to this?

Wednesday, April 28th, 2010

Is this going to be Clegg’s final week pitch?

I’ve long taken the view that the most critical four and a half minutes in this election campaign will be the three 90 second wind-up statements by Brown, Cameron and Clegg at the end of tomorrow night’s debate.

Each one will use it as a straight appeal setting out the core reasons why voters should support them and their parties. What they say will frame the final days of campaigning.

So what are we to make of the interview with Nick Clegg in this morning’s Times when he sets out his ambition to become Prime Minister – something I don’t think he has expressed in this form before?

My reading is that this is part of a deliberate strategy to move on from the hung parliament narrative in this increasingly presidential-type campaign. Clegg still has novelty value and this builds on it.

He can only make this pitch with any credibility because of the progress that his party has seen in the polls.

He’s helped by ongoing negative perceptions of Mr. Brown and what for me has been a surprisingly lacklustre and disjointed Tory campaign. Voters want change but do enough of them want Mr. Cameron?

Whatever I think the move will help the yellows to win more seats in an election where the air campaign has been so much more important than what’s been taking place on the ground.

The SportingIndex spread on the Lib Dems has continued to move upwards and is now 89-92 seats.

Next PM betting Cameron Clegg Johnson D Miliband Harman
Ladbrokes 1/3 16/1 16/1 16/1 33/1
Political Smarkets 67% 8% 10% 10% 6%

Mike Smithson



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… and ComRes

Tuesday, April 27th, 2010

Conservatives lead by 4, Labour & Lib Dems tied

ComRes/ITV-The Independent Apr 26 Apr 25
CONSERVATIVES 33% 32%
LIB DEMS 29% 31%
LABOUR 29% 28%

Can we be careful not to discuss postal voting poll subsets as this may be illegal – thanks.

Double Carpet (Twitter:@electiongame)

www.electiongame.co.uk

The UK game will be released shortly



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Tonight’s polls

Tuesday, April 27th, 2010

Conservative lead 8 with Populus, 4 with YouGov

Labour up to second place with YouGov

Populus/The Times Apr 27 Apr 20
CONSERVATIVES 36% 32%
LIB DEMS 28% 31%
LABOUR 27% 28%

YouGov/The Sun Apr 27 Apr 26
CONSERVATIVES 33% 33%
LIB DEMS 28% 29%
LABOUR 29% 28%

Double Carpet (Twitter:@electiongame)

www.electiongame.co.uk

The UK game will be released shortly