Election Night 2010 - the 10.30 thread
May 6th, 2010
REVISED EXIT POLL: CON 305 LAB 255 LD 61 OTH 29
Next thread will appear at 11.30
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second?
survation poll (normally do reality tv!)
http://www.surveymonkey.com/sr.aspx?sm=4E66ZnEYhrRS02JYSQ6V82pu7JLkCr3JfwGf5QfqEzo_3d
Cameron Camp get to microphone first and claim victory and huge rejection of Brown and Labour.
Truth is though, if the exit poll is more or less right, then it’s not a bad result for either main party. Conservatives win and close to majority, and Labour avoid the huge crash.
And both have to spend the night fending the LibDems offs in seats the yellows have targeted.
I hope the postal votes don’t delay the results too much.
It looks as though the LibDem voters have sacrificed themselves in order to ensure that Labour remain in office on the promise of PR.
Gordon Brown is now morally duty bound to offer electoral reform as part of a pact.
This could be a beautiful night for Britain.
Just heard Peter Kelner say that the exit poll suggests a much smaller Lab - Con swing in seats with a sitting Lab MP. This very much fits in with feelings in London Lab circles where there is considerable optimism about Westminster N, Harrow E, Hendon and Eltham. I have been very surprised at the huge personal vote Karen Buck in West. N clearly has, whether this will be enough we shall see in a few hours time
The exit poll must be a rogue, I cannot believe the Lib Dems lost 6% in 24 hours
ON these numbers, there can’t even be a Lab-LD coalition. This changes Clegg’s negotiating options (if he ever had any).
Seems that at long last unanimity has come to PB.com!
Everyone agrees the exit poll is bollox!!
Lab/LD/SNP/SDLP coalition beckons?
FPT
Finally managed to get back on - sticking to my forecast.
Tory majority of 8.
But -
that Exit poll is nasty for everyone - everyone loses, nobody wins…
Who knows? Maybe that *is* the electorate’s will?
314 Lab + LD not enough for a coalition…
6. Stockholm syndrome for the troughers ??
If LDs are down 3 it will be the death of pollsters and UNS.
What are the numbers? This is absolutely ridiculous.
the exit poll looks like a stinker to me. Look at those libdem target seats- how do you get to 59?
I presume that Martin Day has literally laughed himself to death on hearing the exit poll seat projection for the Lib Dems.
Mandelson and Johnson conceding PR….
Okay Roger, here’s the figures, nothing in it so whoever wins will hardly be closer than the other! Oh well, may the best pollster win.
YOUGOV LAST WEEK AVERAGE
CON 34.6 – LAB 28 – LD 27.6
ICM LAST WEEK AVERAGE
CON 35.0 – LAB 28.3 – LD 27
22:31 Peter Mandelson tells Radio Scotland if exit polls are correct, Brown will stay at No. 10.
Good God Tom is value.
FPT:
Just plugged the figures into UKPR UNS calculator and the seats distro is 309/253/57/30. Hmmm. I hope OGH can explain to these UNS people that it’s mostly useless…
jgc
You think that McNulty has a considerable personal vote in Harrow E???
Maybe he has but it is proceeded by a minus sign.
Let’s see what Sunderland shows - due shortly….
If this poll is based on anything like UNS, then the Tories must be way ahead in votes (and winning on seats).
The LDs simply cannot support Labour in that situation. Or can they.
bit suspicous they won’t release proper figures for this exit poll, we’d never accept that from a regular opinion poll
Just imagine where we would be now if.
Brown had turned that mic off!
FPT: I am off to my bed, but I’m not sure I’ll sleep. I really don’t believe this exit poll. The LibDems are surely not losing seats?!??!?
Come on - this is a nailed on Tory majority.
bobajob and i dont often agree but we are sticking on this!!!!
is it just me but did those people who got turned away at Sheffield look like lib dems ?
Sheffield Council is looking very stupid here, surely an extension was merited due to the unprecedented turnout. If the result of the seats in Sheffield are close, could we see a legal challenge?
Labour ministers already trying to hang on to the baubles of office
10 mins to Sunderland.
Watch the forecast change based on that here…
http://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key=tjmgaOdUE7G6D-Z5KkGK3bQ&output=html
What are these late voters who couldn’t vote moaning about? Disenfranchised in the mother of democracies? It only takes two seconds and they had 13 hours.
Vote early and vote often next time .
A Labour/Lib Dem coalition is probably the best possible outcome for the Tories at this time, given that a strong Tory majority isn’t a possibility.
12. 10k per annum communications allowance incumbent mps have had for past 4 years?
fingers on buttons for TOM when the first result comes in.
NP gone on the exit poll swing. No surprise there.
5.5 swing
7.0 swing in England
swing to Lab in Scotland AND WALES…!!!
7% Lab to Con swing in England. A 1% to Labour in Scotland and Wales, apparently.
Exit poll says 7% Lab>con swing in England. Wonder where the marginals will be on that.
BBC Exit Poll:
Swing Lab to Con in Great Britain = 5.5%
Swing Lab to Con in England = 7.0%
Small swing from Con -> Lab in Wales and Scotland
7% swing in England to Tories?
Possible TOM.
Scotland and Wales don’t matter.
Swing against the tories in Wales according to Jeremey Vine
total comedy bollox
turn sound off TV until results come in?
Lab>Con 7% swing to Tories in England - BBC
LD>Con 2% swing. Can’t see that at all.
Hm. Anything could happen!
TOM 3.05 - only 19 seats away on a UNS exit poll - I’m almost tempted
Just imagine what would have happened if Brown had turned his mic off.
Exit poll - 1% swing Con to Labour in Scotland AND Wales?!!!
If the exit poll is correct, then all the rollover coaster polls throughout the campaign meant nothing, and the polls yesterday also wrong, the result reflects the polls the moment the election gun was fired.
All the poll watching and nashing of teeth and hot air generated by the polls. All meaningless. Ever felt you’ve been had?
We could have gone on holiday. If the planes could take off.
The more I see of this poll, the more it looks bizarre.
7% swing in England should do it for the Conservatives, IMHO.
A swing to Labour in Scotland is plausible. But in Wales? That would fly in the face of every poll.
Why is PB so quiet?
Is everyone at a count?
I can get the BBC in North Dakota; have to turn the sound down for some bits but DD is OK.
Exit polls are bizarre - my call is the Libs will be in excess of 75 and Tories around 295 mark - tomorrow will be very interesting .
Fact is there is a mandate for no-one , Cameron was batting against the worst Labour government for many years yet still has not cracked it , Labour must know they could have won with a different leader and Lib Dems will be rightly furoius about seat share …
In 2005 the exit poll was spot on for Labour but put the Tories 11 seats too high and the LDs 11 seats too low. I think the same thing could happen this time in the sense that I think 307 seats for the Tories sounds right to me but I’d expect the LDs to win about 70 seats rather than 59.
Sporting’s current GE Seats mid-spreads:
Con ……320
Lab…….225
LD………73
I always thought it would take more than an election to prise Gordon from office. This is regime change and desperate Labour are going to cling on for grim death. It will only ruin the vestiges of their reputation for a generation if they try and steal an election they didn’t win.
What happened to the supposèd Welsh Tory surge?
whatever happens tonight, at least one lot of pollsters is going to have a major* problem
is this the first exit poll in history that is bad news for EVERY party!
A 5.5% swing to Tories, from Labour, would be the largest Labour to Tory swing in British electoral history.
http://www.economist.com/specialreports/displaystory.cfm?story_id=15841541
BBC says Arnie has called Cameron to congratulate him on his “victory”
Sunderland: here we go…
mackems faffing around
Swing from Libs to Cons on the exit poll, will Cons pick up Richmond Solihull etc. as it could make a big difference. Play the England card Dave!
Long time lurker here,
I know Stuart is probably sleeping, just like his new bairn, I just wondered if there has been a Scottish breakdown from the ‘others’.
Count in top left of BBC screen switched to 61 for lib dems?!?!
Huge result that for Labour even for a safe seat .
crap turnout
If I remember rightly, Boulton was saying Labour had a 17k majority, which has fallen by 6k to 11k. That’s substantial.
8.4% swing
55% turnout - poor ?
Lab down 12% , Swing 8.4 % Not good for brown
8.4% swing to Tories. Good.
19 ‘Peter Mandelson tells Radio Scotland if exit polls are correct, Brown will stay at No. 10.’
Is Mandy trying to make Brown and Labour even more unpopular?
8.4% swing in Sunderland South….
LD Down.
8.4%!!
8.5% Lab-Con swing in Houghton and Sunderland South
8.5% swing in Sunderland S
Not a good labour result. Down 12. Obviously they could do better in tighter seats.
What was in the Independent’s manifesto? Free love?
The independent in Sunderland obviously had a big impact on Labour’s share!
Rubbish LD result - maybe exit poll is right!!! amazing
Who was the independent though - got a decent number
It’s a 8.5% swing L to C. not bad for Con in Lab safe seat (comparison with notional 2005)
LD alsmost stable
So 8% Lab>Con swing in first seat, and BBC ticker drops Tories to 305?
Decent swing from Lab to Cons but low turn out may be partly why
Kellner flaiiing about, not impressed.
Exit poll shows LDs now up to 61…
66. No it isn’t - it’s very bad news for Labour. Look at the swing from lab to con.
Labour in lead
First result shows 8.45% swing to tories. Thrasher tries to claim it is in line with exit poll. Clearly not.
76. 8.4% swing is, if UNS, a very comfortable majority.
8.4% swing, are we expecting marginals to have a smaller or bigger swing?
Swing suggests 74 Lib Dem seats from Sunderland.
Everyone seems to be in shock, except Mandelson, who is stroking his white cat.
Johnson and Harman also straight out of the traps on PR.
TOM moving in, slightly. Could they just edge it?
If 8.4% is repeated across the board, that would imply a hefty Conservative majority.
Ed Balls’ majority would be down to 4%.
Polly Toynbee talking nonsense. She is so over rated as a political commentator “Queen speech to contain just one priority, voting reform” rubbish.
Flint has lots of nice hair.
could this be the least uniform election ever ?
Labour talking about challenging the result in Hallam !
I doubt if it’s that close.
Let’s see how close Sanderland Central is.
8.5% swing there would leave Lab around 7% ahead
51. Because its difficult to enter the site.
So far over 8 point swing to the Turquoise party.
90. I thought that, how could 8.45% be in line with the tories being 20 short of a majority? Why do they need to lie, we all know a lot of it is guess work, why not just take the small ribbing and say, look David, we might have it wrong.
NOM and TOM converging again on BF
92. Tories could have votes in the wrong place, safe Lab and Con seats…
How does the 7pc the Independent got in Sunderland cloud the swing?
Kelner putting it all down to lower swing with Labour incumbent.
Looks like whole thing will depend on this.
Kellner looks a prat.
94. Labour will not be able to form a government on these figures. They are soundly beaten, especially in England.
If the Scots and Welsh Libs and Labs try to form a government against the clearly expressed will of the English, the Union will go into meltdown.
betting market moves to Tories in Richmond park
91 8.4% swing to Tories. All eyes on Ed Balls at 3AM.
Big swing there, in the kind of safe seat Brown has been fighting to gain support for the entire of this Election Campaign.
Updated Exit Poll
CON 305
LAB 255
LIB 61
An independent polled 7% in Houghton and Sunderland South, so may not be typical. BNP down 2%.
1st result, 12% down for labour (though the independent seems to have taken a large portion of the swing), tories up 5 (good in a labour safe seat), lib dems down 1 (bad for them but not a seat that matters)
106 Nick Palmer personally inflating the Labour result.
96 Yes but Balls has the problem of complete unpopularity and Tory momentum in the seat so looks like he’s had it.
112 Gabble, still no LIB/LAB majority. POGWAS.
Keep watching Sporting’s GE Seats market - dealing in real time with real money - The Tories on on the cusp of an OVERALL MAJORITY!!!!!!
109- My outside tip Richmond, friend rushed back at 9.30 to vote Tory after voting Lib last time. Libs to Con shift.
Nate Silver at 538.com, who predicted the US election with uncanny accuracy, has his own exit predictions – Tories at 341, Labour 219, Lib Dems 62. He’s still urging caution, but definitely thinks the Tories will hit the 327 they need for an absolute majority. (Hat-tip: Danny Finkelstein).
Interesting lack of a LD surge. The dog that didn’t bark? Or not. We shall see.
108 sounds good to me.
Labour had a new candidate in sunderland replacing a popular mp. Though the seat location in the northeast isn’t where tories are projected to do the best. So not much to gain from this seat except that lib dem vote is down.
Nate Silver’s prediction
http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2010/05/liveblog-uk-election-returns.html
CON 341, LAB 219, LD 62
106 One seat isn’t going to be like the next in this election is it.
Key is where Lib Dems are challenging Tories,
Yes they could take more from Labour where they are challenging them, but those don’t play so much in the overall majority challenge.
What sort of Lib v Con and Con v Lib battles should we be looking at then?
Dave’s old teacher
So Mr Kellner believes that the troughers are going to be rewarded.
This makes me more worried than anything else.
Hmmm so Labour might actually be getting 1.0% positive swing in Scotland and Wales, I think Easterross will be hitting the Buckie bigtime if the Tories don’t make any gains.
I think we can honestly say what ever the result, that the wilder talk of a total Labour meltdown may be short of the mark as for ARC, may not be right.
Interesting times may lie ahead.
BBC refer to Neil Kinnock as “another former Lib Dem leader” (entry for 11.03 pm):
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/shared/election2010/liveevent/
I guess exit poll projections underestimate LD “outside” gains in large swings they usually make evey time.
RodCrosby @ 104: “Tories could have votes in the wrong place, safe Lab and Con seats…”
Why? So they can fit in with your theories?
Exciting! What on earth might have happened to the significant increase in lib den seats. These exit polls must be off. I’m going to buy some whisky, stay up, and watch this madness unfold. Pollsters days could be over!
Thank you Prof Vernon!!! We all picked up on that within milliseconds.
Independent in Sunderland South was a local campaigner on Toxic Sites in Houghton (also an independent local councillor) so should be seen as attracting votes across the spectrum rather than disproportionately attracting Labour votes.
I suspect a slightly larger swing in safe Labour seats will be a natural realignment of the electoral system - we’ll find it’s not as skewed against the Tories as everybody thought now that the Tories aren’t so relatively unpopular versus Labour. Like Labour in the 80s etc
poling stations kept open…
Oh Christ…
State of Emergency, anyone?
“So Mr Kellner believes that the troughers are going to be rewarded.
This makes me more worried than anything else.”
Well if we can’t do it by an election we’ll have to take more direct action won’t we?
People turned away at 10pm. Our version of hanging chads?
Guido on ITV - introduced as Paul - talking about angry voters being turned away from the polling stations at 10pm. Closing times don’t seem to count for anything these days.
QUESTION: What is the best on-line AUDIO coverage(s) of the UK 2010 GE?
126. “So Mr Kellner believes that the troughers are going to be rewarded.
This makes me more worried than anything else.”
We’ve given the ballot box a go, if that hasn’t worked we’ll need to remove them by other means.
Hurrah, Charlotte Hawkins in Luton
All those people who were undecided, but found themselves at the doors of the polling stations, forgot who the Libs were…
136 - What, 12 hours wasn’t enough time to vote.. jesus!
More from Silvers model
“11:02 PM (BST). Without making the regional adjustment, our model would have forecast Labour 49%, Conservatives 22%, LibDems 16% in Sunderland South.
Uniform swing would have predicted Labour 54%, Conservatives 21%, LibDems 15%.
10:56 PM (BST). Assuming that raw results nationwide were Conservatives 38, Labour 28, LibDems 23 (see below), our model would have forecast Sunderland South results of Labour 49%, Conservatives 22%, LibDems 17%. Actual: Labour 50%, Conservatives 21%, LibDems 14%. So far, so good.”
“QUESTION: What is the best on-line AUDIO coverage(s) of the UK 2010 GE?”
Mike’s on Five Live on the BBC if you want to listen there, via the BBC website I would think.
Looks like the “polling station shut out” story is going to run; it will give the Facebooker/RATM/Tw@tter crowd something to get excited about now the Cleggasm looks to have gone pffft.
Could be Britain’s hanging chads…
Sorry but have no sympathy if you didn’t get to vote because the polls closed at 10pm - you had 15 hours in which to vote, and you could have had a postal vote. Pillocks.
“QUESTION: What is the best on-line AUDIO coverage(s) of the UK 2010 GE?”
Dale is up from midnight
http://iaindale.blogspot.com/2010/05/how-lbc-election-night-programme-is.html
Dimbers: third world politics, a disgrace…
Reading the BBC description of the preparations for the count at Sunderland, it sounds like an absolute disgrace.
Transparency was clearly sacrificed for the sake of a speedy result.
How did the bank clerks count the votes? Flipping through the corners, like they used to with pound notes.
Suncerladn ought to be referred to the Electoral Commission. IMO of course.
if Sea Shanty @ 138
if you want to watch online
http://atdhe.net/watch-bbc-news.php
Dimbleby says the shut out an “outrage”, “third world politics”. Impartiality out the window.
Could the people not have voted earlier instead of leaving it till the last minute?
Surely X Factor viewers know that if you ring after the lines shut, your vote won’t count.
Tim’s favourite Kirsty Allsop doing rather well on ITV. At least she’s a lot more to the point than that old windbag Digby Jones.
538 liveblog:
11:06 PM (BST). It’s just one constituency, but as the only hard data point so far, Sunderland South results imply that EITHER uniform swing is wrong-ish (and our proportional model is right-ish) OR that Conservatives did even better (and Labour even worse) than the exit polls suggested. Either conclusion would be bad news for Labour.
I voted on the way to work. Anybody who hasn’t voted by 10pm must be stripped of the right forever. NO excuses!
did that independent in Sunderland take votes off Labour?
Sunderland S not somwhere the tory GOTV effort would have had much presence I assume, nor would it have had any Ashcroft money. 8.45% on that basis is very encouraging for them
151 - Agree entirely. Voting hours have been like this for years.
Houghton /Sunderland S - Those Independent votes are “Labour” votes, exclude them swing is 5+ % maybe exit poll is right?
I backed the exit poll into Andy Cooke. It spat back Con 36 Lab 33 Lib D 21
this is a strange night.
151. “Surely X Factor viewers know that if you ring after the lines shut, your vote won’t count”
But you will still be charged.
154 RedCrosby - see 133
TOM still moving in.
People always whine when they fecked up and forgot to vote.
108. SeanT - “the Union will go into meltdown”
Ave Sean.
Daily Post (a welsh paper) twitter:
Election count whispers: Positive reports for Lab after early samples in Vale of Clwyd; Swansea West very close.
152 - Allsopp on ITV, how common.
Does anyone know what the result was in 1974. How many seats did Lab/Con get?
If someone wants to vote at 9.55pm, the polling station should be efficient enough to accommodate them.
How can they be updating the exit poll. Did they not work it out on a spreadsheet beforehand. This is amateur time.
let’s see if that lab-con swing holds up in next seat……………………..
I’m bored already.
This site has had it! I cannot post!
119. Erica. That Nate Silver prediction would be the jackpot for me.
The stjohn dream betting result:
Tories over 326
Labour under 218
Lib Dems under 80
Worst result
Tories 323-325
Labour over 227
Lib Dems exactly 70
Go Nate!
lol, on the bbc, LD have done very well,….. they’ve kept Lempick Opic hidden all election
The straw for Lib Dems to clutch at right now may be that, in an election of “voting against somebody”, the party perceived to be in third place is going to do badly across the board (as in Houghton).
This election night needs more results to see a trend in swings.
I remember last few elections Labour normally get to about 100 nil, but we can still learn from the swings.
Interesting to see what point the Tory seats projection starts going up.
TOM TOM TOM TOM
still edging in….
Ipswich Spy @146: “#
Sorry but have no sympathy if you didn’t get to vote bdecause the polls closed at 10pm - you had 15 hours in which to vote, and you could have had a postal vote. Pillocks.”
i think anyone without your obvious problem of being a complete arsehole would recognise that you really need to know what time the people turned up to vote before branding them “pillocks”. I voted at 7 am but if I hadn’t I might easily have turned up at 5 to 10 and been outraged at not being able to vote.
172. You just did. If the swing was not distorted by the independent then the tories are locked in for a majority.
157 - ridiculous comment - how in hell would you know those voters (even if they were usual Labour voters) would have been the ones who wouldn’t have swung to another party if the independent hadn’t stood?
167.
Lab 301
Con 296
Lib 14
shouldn’t have there been a new thread at 11?
“Our reporter Laura Dixon, over in Norwich South - second on the Greens’ target list - reports things aren’t looking too good for the environmentalists up there.
“Sample tests in Norwich South not looking so good for the Greens. ‘We are less confident than we were….’ one councillor said.
“Frantic counting of the different wards ongoing- but he thinks some supporters might have ‘bottled it’.”
Swing to Tories in Sunderland was with no effort put in.
Exciting!!!
Surely those exit polls can’t be right?? The LD’s, if the BBC exit polls hold, would change how Clegg negotiates and what his priorities would be. The next government would have to sign up the PR or AV, because the LDs would realise that even after all of the hoohah of Cleggmania, only a change in the voting system will get them more seats.
The financial markets are on the brink. I just hope that our leaders conduct themselves with maturity and dignity if there is no overall majority.
I’m going to buy some whisky, stay up and revel in the madness of this election!!!!
how many votes are ukip and bnp going to get tonight any ideas total? 3million each? whats a good vote for them?
Exciting!!!
Surely those exit polls can’t be right?? The LD’s, if the BBC exit polls hold, would change how Clegg negotiates and what his priorities would be. The next government would have to sign up the PR or AV, because the LDs would realise that even after all of the hoohah of Cleggmania, only a change in the voting system will get them more seats.
The financial markets are on the brink. I just hope that our leaders conduct themselves with maturity and dignity if there is no overall majority.
I’m going to buy some whisky, stay up and revel in the madness of this election!!!!
Con home says Totnes close - strong LD challenge..
This is a disaster for the Tories. And for Labour. And for the Lib Dems.
Great to see Labour spinners already gushing about electoral reform. AV+! AV+++! Av It++!!! Go on Nick. Ministerial Limo. PR. You know it makes sense….
Now. I need a bloomin drink.
Clarke basically saying “electorate were right to give Blair huge majority and reduce us to 160 seat rump”. Yeah really need him.
In Merton we are confident we have held Abbey Ward where Labour has made a big effort.
24 hour drinking menas there is a whole generation of new voters who have no concept of “time, gentlemen, PLEASE!” Just because you can turn up and demand a drink, you can’t do the same with a vote.
Could be a number of by elections coming up by the sound of it…
LeaderLive (another welsh local paper) twitter:
“and a Plaid observer in M’shire reckons Glyn Davies might have it. No Newtown boxes have hit the tables yet, though”
“Lib Dem Paul Penlington in Vale of Clwyd tells our reporter Labour’s Chris Ruane should be “really concerned.”
“Some word from Delyn and Alyn and Deeside. David Hanson says he is ‘farily hopeful’ of retaining the former” (Tory candidate says he is hopeful to have run him close)
51% turnout in sunderland labour staying at home 8.4% swing to the tories.
rofl: facebook generation need to learn to get out of bed before 9pm.
How odd! A few people lose their votes in England = national scandal
May 2007, several hundred thousand people lose their votes in Scotland = Douglas Alexander gets off the hook
Err… spot the difference.
What a shame this site is slow as hell.
I cannot believe the exit polls, but for the first time something inside me is saying the Tories MAY be being held off - people can’t get into vote in urban areas. They don’t look much like Tories…
181. RodCrosby - thanks very much for that instant information. Only a 5 seat maj for Labour in 1974 eh?
I think the Ind in Houghton has skewed the result there. If the result in Washington shows a broadly similar Lab>Con swing then we’ll know that’s not the case!
Thanks for audio (and video) suggestions. Am now listening to BBC 5 live, actually upgraded my internet to achieve this!
BTW, what links for notation results of UK parliamentary constituencies?
186 A good vote for BNP would be plus 500000. I took it at 9/4. UKIP should poll more - they’ve more candidates (I think?) and a better press.
166 - ” Allsopp on ITV, how common.”
Does she live in a semi then?
187 Sabian
Where do you buy whisky at this time of night ?
BBC coverage this evening very disappointing, overly gimmicky graphics, too many celebrities and too many presenters. Overkill in a bad way.
Washington and Sunderland W should be another safe Lab
sharon hodgson = non-babe
Tories sweep past LDs in Sund W
LABOUR LANDSLIDE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Labour vote fallen to 19K (from notional 22K) in Washington & Sunderland West. LDs up a bit, Con up a lot.
TOM racing in.
11% swing
NEW THREAD IN 2 mins
11.6% where’s ave it?
Check out that SWING
Sunderland South 8.5% swing Lab to Con
Sunderland West 11.6% swing Lab to Con
Seats that matter - 15% plus??
YESSSSS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Hmm, that’s easily majority territor for Cameron.
11.6% - Huge swing.
11.6% LAB CON swing in Washington and Sunderland. CON MAJ!
11.6%!!!!!!
11.5% is a HUGE swing in the GE!!!!!!
Biggest to con in any GE seat since 12% hertfordshire w 1983!!!
11.6%!! Jeez!
Washington = 11.6% swing LAB to CON
Labour are f****d.
Wow, big swing going on now.
11.5% swing in Washington. What the hell is going on???
11+% swing with no effort, with no party workers, with no GOTV
David Cameron is Prime Minister
Swing absolutely bloody enormous…
That’s a huge swing. TOM?!
BNP saves deposit
Labour majority nearly as big as its candidate.
Bigger swing to Con though. 11.5% And no independent excuse this time! Exit poll wrong. Tory majority time!
Low turnouts in both those …tories getting out their votes
Hodgson was MP for Gateshead East and Washington West. She lost the internal selection for the redrawn Gateshead seat there and then was selected for this (which contained parts of her old seat)
TOM earthquake 1.55 matched
This is looking disastrous
168 ‘If someone wants to vote at 9.55pm, the polling station should be efficient enough to accommodate them.’
Why? They’ve only had, oh, 15 hours to cast their vote. Divvies.
Come on Gabble, predict Labour largest party
If this swing is repeated in Sunderland Central, it will be close there
Suggests something closer to 90 seats for lib dems.
Things changing quickly.
I wonder if we are having a bigger swing in the north due to bigot-gate.
May not be replicated nationwide though.
Based on those first 2 results I’m thinking a lot of people that told the exit pollsters they voted Labour actually voted BNP.
Eleven per cent Lab -> Con swing in Washington…
Fifty-four per cent turn-out.
Arrrrgh! Eric Pickles on TV.
Swing 12%+ tory swing heaven
Sunderland Central???????????????
Mandleson complaining lol
balls dead and buried on this - 350+ on for Con!!!
Unless of course the swing is LESS in the marginal HIGHLY UNLIKELY
11.5% Swing = Wow
I take it they’ll count Sunderland Central now?
That will be very interesting!
Re: poll closing problems at some UK polling stations, the rule in US (everywhere I know about) is that you are IN LINE by the poll closing deadline, you get to vote. This also appears to be UK rule. BUT it hasn’t been followed in some places, including in at least one marginal constituency (Manchester Withrington).
Note that some sectors of voters, such as traditional UK working class/ US blue collar, tend to vote later on Election Day, in many cases because they travel or report to work before polls open.
Real problem (if that’s the word) has been turnout surge combined with inadequate and/or strained facilties in some (how many?) voting stations.
Sadly, I can’t get too excited about those swings. Labour vote is down much more than Tory vote is up - due to shift to BNP and UKIP.
Thus the Lab-Tory swing is closer to the Tory increase, surely?
Given that the big brains are on the BBC, they’ve really fecked up with a UNS-based exit poll and even Bogdanor can’t explain the swings properly.
Bah.
234 - because we’re allowed to vote until 10pm. Polling stations must deal with that.
Caution: Washington & Sunderland West:
Could notionals be dodgy?
Baxter had Con 2nd in 2005 whereas BBC say LD was 2nd.
That swing was rather large…!
SPIN midpoints:
con 336.5
lab 210.5
ldem 68
Swing nationally must be at least 3% at the extreme minimum…
Sunderland C could well go to a recount.
11.6% isn’t TOM - it’s a Tory landslide bigger than what Blair got.
All the polls, including, the exit poll, seem to be totally out.
Does anyone have a link to seats declarations by times (in order)?
From Glasgow count:
“Lib Dem sources confident of winning Glasgow North based on a preliminary box count; Labour sources certain they’ve regained Glasgow East.”
sunderland Central=close
Stuart Dickson @197
No difference Unionists were responsible for the arrangements in both!
How can a Returning Officer be so incompetent as to run out of ballot papers?
On the dodgy exit poll a realistic coalition with Labour in it would need 5 parties (LAB/LIBDEM/Plaid/SNP/SDLP) for a really slim, non-working majority coalition.
Surely just the LibDems + Conservatives would be a more stable coalition and one out of which the LibDems would be able to get more. In the Lab coalition they’d be horsetrading with 3 other parties for influence just for a slimmest of majorities.
Shocker for the Tories.
Julie Elliott lost the Labour selection against Hodgson for the other seat. Then she got selected for this one
Explanation.
the notionals in sunderland were seriously wrong…
Er 4.8% swing this time. Perhaps the BBC notional figures are, well, total rubbish!!!!!
Back to NOM?
261. No its not - 4.8% swing in Sunderland Central
Sunderland Central first seat anywhere near the exit poll. Is there a risk that Labour will just do really badly where it doesn’t matter? Lib Dems really are going nowhere.
Labour voters getting out when they know the seat counts.
The electorate is VERY sophisticated nowadays.
I reckon LibDems will do better in seats where they were not in third place.
261 - Sunderland Central close eh? heh heh heh.
205 @ lurker no more
I’ll be getting whisky from the 24hr shop down the road. There’s ten a penny in central London to fuel late night drinking.
Mandelson, is deploying all of his dark arts to keep the Labour flame stoked. They may be embers, but he is doing his best. He is a pretty effective advocate of anything he wants to believe.
Exciting!!
Sunderland C / Full on Tory effort, very popular local Con candidate, only 5% swing
The BNP got exactly the same number of votes in the last two seats.
shurely shome mistake?
I guess the next results will be something from North Ireland.
Surely Belfast West don’t need much time to count..
How are the swings being calculated in “new” constituencies?
Couldn’t the Tory swings merely be a result of the boundary changes?
Others up nearly 5% in Sunderland…
273 C’mon Rod,I am sure you could give us a mathematical probability of this occurence
FWIW,I actually think the pattern of 1992 will repeat-over the next hour or so an overall Conservative majority will be borne out by swings
And everyone in these queues looks pretty young. The youth vote in those seats must surely hurt the LDs.
Some of these presiding officers, although completing a civic duty, seem to have been such jobsworths that they’re demeaning the UK democratic process. I hope there aren’t any legal challenges, or as Dimbleby says, we’re becoming and will be perceived as a ‘third world’!! This is ridiculous!!!!
What I don’t understand is why the BBC only talks about the possibility of a Lib-Lab pact. Although I’m a Tory, I can’t see why the Liberals don’t take their chance, team up with the Tories in a “Government of National Unity” in order to attack the deficit, all the while blaming Labour for the mess that we’re in and the harshness of the cuts.
For the Tories the pay off is across the board support for the tough cuts that are necessary.
For the Liberals they have the chance to crush the Labour party and displace them as the main party of the left.
On the other hand for the Liberals to prop up Labour would be a disaster for them — they would be the baby brother, seen as the guys who sustained in power the unpopular current Government.
Lib-Con is also the only combination that would command the House of Commons.
Well let’s see what happens… lots of excitement to come.
279 Quite right…young first time voters out for the evening after work having a few drinks…thinks better go and vote it’s 9 pm or so…..obviously affects Lib Dems more if they couldn’t all vote..
Polls all over the place.
Lock-ins and lock-outs - has that ever happened before ?
All three TV stations interviewing luvvies and celebs instead of politicos.
Con and Lab politicos having a ding-dong based solely on a dodgy exit poll.
“Experts” who don’t know what they are talking about.
Mandelson and Campbell STILL manipulating the TV coverage.
Another glorious British Feck-up.
Is there anything that works in this country ?
This country is well and truly stuffed.
This unable-to-vote story could emerge as a huge story. The reports already seem to be pretty widespread across the country, including in some very close seats like Chester and Ealing.
What does it mean for betting? It strengthens the case for another election to be held soon - although I note the betfair market on that is currently slack it can be backed fairly close to evens now.
Looks like zero for UUP/Tory in NI
Tory landslide in England?