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DavidM heading for victory – YouGov

July 29th, 2010

YouGov – First round poll

Candidate Members Unions MPs/MEPs Electoral College
David Miliband 38 34 39 37
Ed Miliband 32 26 30 29
Diane Abbott 13 17 5 12
Andy Burnham 10 13 12 12
Ed Balls 7 11 14 11

So punters seem to have been getting this right

The first YouGov poll members of those able to vote in the Labour leadership election, is just out and suggests that David Miliband is heading for victory.

The older brother is leading in all three sections of the electoral college on the first round and the firm projects that in the final round of counting Dave will beat Ed by a 54-46 margin.

Full details are here.

This is big news and should reinforce the betting.

Further reflections I think that this is a brilliant poll for DM and the scale of the challenge facing EM with lower preferences is enormous.

DM is on 37% after the first round and an overall 35% put a non-Miliband in first place. So DM just needs 13/35ths of the balance in lower preferences while his brother needs 22/35ths.

But we know that in this form of election a significant chunk of voters ONLY name their number one choice – thus requiring an even great proportion of the Abbott/Burnham/Balls votes to give their lower preferences to EM if he is to win.

Mike Smithson