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Polling Labour’s leadership election

July 30th, 2010
Candidate Unions actual Unions YouGov Members actual Members YouGov
Cruddas 27.27% 15% 13.89% 12%
Harman 13,05% 16% 19.62% 17%
Johnson 13.65% 26% 24.24% 24%
Benn 14.79% 22% 12.81% 24%
Hain 19.92% 15% 14.43% 13%
Blears 11.31% 7% 14.97% 9%

YouGov in the 2007 Deputy race

The above shows the YouGov projections and the actual first round shares in the final YouGov poll before the 2007 Labour deputy race.

As can be seen the big variance was in the union section with the John Cruddas numbers. This was felt at the the time to be down to the timing on the fieldwork – taking before the only TV debate and before the main union had sent out supporting material in their publications for Cruddas.

He was the only one who was not a minister and had a lower public profile.

In the members section YouGov did pretty well with the big exception of the large overstatement of the Hillary Benn figures.

A big difference between 2007 and now is that was a contest for deputy – this is for leader. Turnout is likely to be much higher particularly within the union sections which could have a big influence.

Mike Smithson