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YouGov have the Lib Dems at 12%

July 31st, 2010
Pollster/publication Date CON LAB LD
YouGov/Sun Times 30/07/10 42 38 12
YouGov/Sun 26/07/10 42 35 15
MORI/Reuters 25/07/10 40 38 14
ICM/Guardian 25/07/10 38 34 19
YouGov/Sun 21/07/10 44 35 13
ComRes/Independent 27/06/10 40 31 18
YouGov/Sunday Times 25/06/10 43 36 16
ICM/Sunday Telegraph 24/06/10 41 35 16
YouGov/Sun 24/06/10 43 34 17

Is this a reaction to the Robinson programme?

The latest daily poll from the YouGov panel has the Lib Dems down to one of their lowest shares in a long time – just 12 points.

I wonder whether this is in part a reaction to the big political story on Friday, when the fieldwork was taking place, of the Nick Robinson BBC TV programme about how the coalition came about.

It should be said that that YouGov has proved to be (see table below) the most volatile pollster when it comes to the third party. In the three years before the election it had shares ranging from 11% – 34% and it was the only one of the mainstream firms to have it ahead of both the Tories and Labour.

Clegg and his team will, no doubt, point to the vast gap between the YouGov numbers and those from ICM only a few days ago when the party share was put at 19%.

I’m hoping that we’ll see a survey in the next day or so from one of the phone pollsters that finished in the top half of the 2010 polling table. Will that back YouGov up?

If it does and that follows through to the conference season then it will make life even more uncomfortable for the yellows.

Polling the LD 2005 – 2010

Pollster Final poll ’10 Range ’05-’10 Top LD position
ICM +2.4 14%-31% 2nd
Populus +3.4 12%-31% 2nd
Ipsos MORI +3.4 11%-32% 1st=
ComRes +4.4 12%-31% 2nd
YouGov +4.4 11%-34% 1st

Mike Smithson