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Harry Hayfield’s October local election report

October 29th, 2010

The red team continues to make progress

Party Votes Cast % Votes Seats Won Change
Labour 17714 35.69% 14 +5
Conservatives 14594 29.41% 10 -3
Liberal Democrats 10139 20.43% 6 -1
Independents 2181 4.39% 2 -1
Plaid Cymru 1297 2.61% 0 -1
Green Party 1139 2.30% 0 n/c
United Kingdom Independence Party 771 1.55% 0 n/c
Scottish National Party 571 1.15% 0 n/c
British National Party 183 0.37% 0 n/c
Other Parties 1037 2.09% 2 1

GAINS / LOSSES
Conservative GAINS: Newton (Swansea)
Labour GAINS: Tilgate (Crawley), Irwell (Rossendale), Treherbert (Rhondda,
Cynon, Taff), River (Medway), Barton and Sandhill (Oxford)
Liberal Democrat GAINS: Capel, Leigh and Newdigate (Mole Valley)
Other GAINS: St. Nicholas (Herefordshire)

Change on past local elections (overall)

2007 2008 2009 2010 Average
Con -7.00%   4.00% -9.00% -9.00%
Lab n/c   2.00% 14.00% +9
Lib Dems -2.00%   -2.00% -4.00% -5.00%
Others 9.00%   -4.00% -1.00% 5.00%

The trend of Labour recovering it’s past losses continued in October with Labour picking up wards from Conservatives, Liberal Democrats and Plaid Cymru and managing to poll over 2,000 more votes than the Conservatives recording a 3.5% swing in their favour compared with the 2007 local elections.

This continues to suggest that next year’s local elections will be a triumph for Labour in Conservative / Labour battleground councils and a disaster for the Liberal Democrats in the urban councils. One bright spot for the yellowsa is a 2.5% swing from Conservative to Liberal Democrat, suggesting that councils with little or no Labour representation (such as Solihull in the West Midlands, Poole in Dorset, Stratford upon Avon in Warwickshire and Mole Valley in Sussex) could be Lib Dem beacons of triumph on an otherwise gloomy night.