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Labour lead down 5 in new ComRes phone poll

February 28th, 2011
Poll/publication Date CON % LAB % LD % OTH %
ComRes/Independent (Phone) 27/02/11 35 39 12 14
ComRes/Independent (phone) 30/01/11 34 43 10 13
ComRes/Independent (phone) 09/01/11 34 42 12 12
ComRes/Independent (Phone) 29/11/10 36 40 12 12
ComRes/Independent (Phone) 31/10/10 35 37 16 12

But why no AV question?

There’s a new ComRes phone poll out for tomorrow’s Indy which shows a four points drop for the reds with a two point increase for the yellows and a one point increase for the blues.

That, of course relates to an election that’s not likely to take place for another four years and two months using an electoral system that has yet to be determined with a reduced number of constituencies on new boundaries.

So what about the national election that we know is happening in just over nine weeks time? There doesn’t seem to have been an AV question. Given the cost of staging phone polls it seems crazy that this has been omitted.

Because ComRes phone polling is very different from the firm’s recently introduced online polling I am now planinng to show the two series separately so the proper comparisons can be made.

The Lib Dem and Tory increases are within the margin of error – but Labour’s drop goes beyond that. Are we seeing a fall-back from Labour’s previously high positions or is just a one poll blip? Certainly ComRes is now relatively in line with the other two phone pollsters that past vote weight their samples – ICM and Populus. All have Labour in the 30s with leaders of either 3 or 4 points.

Also coming out tonight is the latest YouGov online phone poll. I’ll update as soon as I get that.

UPDATE: YouGov 36/43/10.

Mike Smithson