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Labour still looking strong in Wales

March 31st, 2011
Welsh Assembly election poll Result 2007 YouGov poll Jan 2011 YouGov Poll 02/03/11 YouGov poll 30/03/11
Constituency vote        
Labour 32% 45% 48% 47%
Conservative 22% 21% 20% 21%
Plaid Cymru 22% 21% 19% 17%
Liberal Democrat 15% 7% 7% 8%
Others 8% 6% 7% 7%
Regional vote        
Labour 30% 41% 45% 45%
Conservative 22% 20% 20% 20%
Plaid Cymru 21% 21% 18% 16%
Liberal Democrat 12% 8% 5% 8%
UKIP 4% 4% 5% 6%
Green 4% 2% 4% 4%
Others 8% 4% 2% 1%

And the Lib Dems could be down only one seat

With just five weeks to go before the Welsh Assembly elections there’s a new YouGov poll out which suggests that Labour is on target to win an overall majority. As the table shows there’s very little movement for the red team over the past four weeks.

The Welsh Lib Dems will take some heart from tonight’s numbers which have them moving up from 5% in the regional vote to 8%. The loser, if that is the right term, is PC which looks set to be down a fair bit on what was achieved in 2007.

One estimate suggests this would work at CON 13(+1): LAB 33 (+ 7), LD 5 (-1): PC 9 (-6) – thus giving Labour an overall majority.

Mike Smithson