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Punters give Boris a 70pc chance of being re-elected

July 30th, 2011

But shouldn’t Labour be capitalising more on their poll position?

The next big scheduled UK election is that for London mayor next May. The main battle, like last time, will be between Ken and Boris with the former attempting to make it three wins out of four.

As the chart of Betfair prices illustrates punter sentiment is strongly with the incumbent.

In 2008 Ken ran Boris reasonably close at a time when his party, Labour, had slumped to almost a low point in the national polls. Next May the national situation could be very different and, as we saw at the 2010 general election, London moved less to the Tories than any other region in England.

My view is that this could be a lot closer than the markets suggest.

@MikeSmithsonPB