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Month: August 2011

Does anyone want to follow Iain Gray as the SLAB leader – anyone?

Does anyone want to follow Iain Gray as the SLAB leader – anyone?

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Henry G Manson on Labour’s challenge in Scotland The bookmakers were quick to develop a market for the successor to Labour’s Iain Gray after he announced his resignation in May. Months on, Gray is still in place, there is no timetable for the contest and currently no eligible candidates declared. Earlier this summer I tipped Ken McIntosh and went reasonably big on him on the grounds he was the party’s best remaining communication. It now seems in there’s a chance…

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Remember when ICM and YouGov last went head to head?

Remember when ICM and YouGov last went head to head?

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The big polling news of the week has been the difference view between the online pollster, YouGov, and the phone firm ICM on what voters are now thinking. The former has had Labour with leads of 5% or more all week – the latter, for the second month running, had the Conservatives with a one point lead. A big difference between the two has been with the Lib Dem share. For YouGov has this at 9% while ICM had it…

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Tonight in the PB Night Hawks Cafe…

Tonight in the PB Night Hawks Cafe…

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Welcome to the third of PB’s experimental over night open threads under the banner of Marf’s wonderful cartoon. The idea is to have a less formal discussion into the early hours that everybody feels able to be part of. We can talk about anything. Last night there was a discussion on one of the things that really infuriates me – the high prices that you are often charged by swanky hotels simply to use WiFi. Have you got similar beefs….

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Is Perry really as certain as this?

Is Perry really as certain as this?

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Betfair Politics Can the Texas Governor be beaten for the nomination? The latest round of polling on the GOP race for the nomination has looked good for Rick Perry – the outspoken governor of Texas. Latest Gallup GOP poll Rick Perry 25% Mitt Romney 14% Sarah Palin 11% Ron Paul 11% Rudy Giuliani 9% Michele Bachmann 7% Herman Cain 4% Newt Gingrich 3% Rick Santorum 3% Jon Huntsman 1% Other 1% No preference 12% All the candidates bar one in…

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The Lib Dems up 4pc in MORI post-riots poll

The Lib Dems up 4pc in MORI post-riots poll

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And there’s little change in the leader ratings The Ipsos-MORI political monitor for August is just out from Reuters and shows little change on July with the exception of Nick Clegg’s Lib Dems. The party sees its share move up 4 to 15% – a change that is in line with the ICM figures earlier in the week that had the yellows on 17%. The MORI 15% is the highest share from the pollster since last September. These figures from…

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Join us in the PB Night Hawks cafe

Join us in the PB Night Hawks cafe

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Last night’s little experiment with the PB Night Hawks cafe seemed to work well and the intention is that this should continue except when there’s a big story breaking. This is an open thread without a central them. Can I particularly welcome those who’ve never posted on here before. Please join the discussion if you feel inclined. Have a good evening. @MikeSmithsonPB

Is this Labour’s big nightmare?

Is this Labour’s big nightmare?

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What if leader ratings are more predictive than VI? I’ve recounted here before how last March I gambled half my entire month’s pension on my strong belief that leader ratings are a better guide to election outcomes than voting intention numbers. Above is the polling that convinced me. Labour were comfortably ahead of the SNP in the voting intention (VI) polling and with the way seats are distributed look set for a substantial lead on seats in the Holyrood elections…

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The Coulson severance story: Day 3

The Coulson severance story: Day 3

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Telegraph Does it raise questions about the party “due dilligence”? The story over the severance package to Andy Coulson and the fact that neither Dave nor the Conserative party appears to have questioned the ex-NOTW editor about it continues to get a fair bit of coverage this morning. As Christopher Hope in the Telegraph reports what happened raises question about “due diligence” carried out by the party – a situation that hasn’t been helped by comments by two former News…

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