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Florida: Remember how it looked just 9 days ago?

January 31st, 2012


How big will Mitt win by tonight?

It is extraordinary that only nine days ago Newt had a big lead in Florida and looked all set to take a second successive state. As we all know it hasn’t actually happened like that and if some polls are right Mitt will win with a double digit lead

Well after facing probably the biggest onslaught of negative advertising ever in a primary and having two mediocre debate performances the outlook for the ex-house speaker does not look good. Mitt has outspent him by a factor of about seven and his numbers have slipped.

Expect to hear claims that Mitt is using the vast financial resources at his disposal to buy the presidency.

But how far will Newt be behind? That’s one of the more interesting betting markets. Betfair have three options and I’ve got a small bet on at about 6/4 that Mitt’s margin will be under 12.5%.

The bet might add a little excitement to what seems a pretty boring night.

Mike Smithson @MikeSmithsonOGH