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Survation-Mirror locals poll points to huge LAB gains on Thursday

April 30th, 2012

Could the reds win more than the initial 700 seat projection?

There’s a new Survation poll out in the Daily Mirror which has both Westminster and local election voting intention for this Thursday.

    The national numbers are CON 30% nc/LAB 37%+2/LD 13%+2/UKIP 9%-1 with comparisons on the firm’s poll a fortnight ago for the Mail on Sunday.

    For the locals Survation has with comparisons on the 2008 national equivalent votes shares when most of these sears were last fought CON 26% -17/LAB 32% +8/LD 15%-8/GRN 7%/UKIP 6%/BNP 3%/OTH 9%

The local shares represent a 12.5% swing from CON>LAB; a 4% swing from CON>LD; and a LD>LAB swing of 8.5%.

A limitation of such polling is that in many places there are no elections taking place and even where there are not all parties have fielded candidates. So people might have responded with a party choice that they are not able to exercise.

Thus in England the Tories are contesting 97.1% of wards, LAB 95.5% and the LDs 70.5%. In Wales the Tories are down to 46.7% the LDs 28.0% with LAB fighting 72.5%.

    Whatever the big picture is that reflected by the Rallings & Thrasher projection that I reported on a fortnight ago. LAB doing enormously well if only because the 2008 elections, with which these need to be compared, were a nightmare.

    The red team should be expecting 700 plus seat gains at the very minimum.

The R&T projection, based on trends in the weekly local by-elections, was that on Thursday the split would be CON 34%/LAB 37%/LD 18%.

  • NOTE – much of the data featured here came from the Rallings & Thrasher briefing organised by the Political Studies Association two weeks ago.
  • @MikeSmithsonOGH