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The Irish Referendum

May 30th, 2012

The Republic of Ireland will hold a referendum to accept the European fiscal compact treaty tomorrow with the problems in Greece and Spain in the background.

 

The polls are showing the yes side will win, but there are significant don’t knows in the polling.

A recent Irish Times/Ipsos MRBI poll put the support for the treaty at 39%, with 30% against the treaty, some 22% are unsure of how to vote and 9% intending not to vote.

In March it was 30% for the treaty, 23% against and  39% undecided and 8% that won’t vote.

How these don’t knows will break will be crucial.

All the polls during the campaign and before have shown the yes side leading, other pollsters have shown larger leads.

Betfair, Paddy Power, Ladbrokes and Stan James have markets on the outright result.

Paddy Power have a market up on how the individual constituencies will vote.

Paddy Power & Ladbrokes have a market on turnout .

Paddy Power also has a market on which constituency will have the highest turnout and highest yes vote.

Sadly there is no market on how many plebiscites it will take for the Irish to get the “right” result.

TSE

Note: Mike Smithson is on holiday until June 7th.