Archive for May, 2012

h1

Is this the man who should be in Number 11 ?

Tuesday, May 29th, 2012

The economic and political narrative has changed markedly for the government since the budget, and deteriorated further when it was officially declared that we were in a double dip recession.

Last night’s u-turns on pasties and caravans have added to that poor narrative (Pasty la vista, Taxman as The Sun’s front page put it)

The ComRes polling last night also shows Osborne’s problem

Some 72 per cent of the public agree that it is time for the Coalition to change its policy so it is focused more on promoting growth and less on cuts, Significantly, a majority of  people who voted Conservative (64 per cent) at the 2010 general election want to see a change of course.

It would appear the current Chancellor’s authority inside the cabinet is also waning, a recent Daily Mail article had this observation.

But one senior Conservative said: ‘The whispers have started about George. People are saying,

“What has gone wrong with him?” Now is not the time to have a Chancellor who lacks self-confidence or doesn’t inspire it in others.’

One thing Ken Clarke doesn’t lack, is self confidence, as a former Chancellor, he knows the Treasury, and crucially is seen as a successful Chancellor.

Ken Clarke can cite that the polling back in  April 1997 as the country was about elect Tony Blair with a landslide, the polling showed that the country preferred him in Number 11, as opposed to Gordon Brown.

He could effectively deal with Ed Balls and the media, as the current Chancellor is obtaining the same Macavity moniker Gordon Brown had.

He can point out both he and Ed Balls attended the same school which may negate the out of touch perception the current Chancellor has.

David Cameron should remember James Carville’s observation: “It’s the economy, stupid

Last week we also had the first stories emerging about splits between Cameron and Osborne, perhaps it is time for David Cameron to have a new occupant at Number 11 before the party or the country decide they want a new occupant in Number 10,

TSE

Note: Mike Smithson is on holiday until June 7th.



h1

Labour lead down to 8 with ComRes phone poll

Monday, May 28th, 2012

Conservatives 34 (+1)

Labour 42 (-1)

Lib Dems 11 (nc)

Others 13 (nc)

The changes are from the last ComRes telephone poll which was carried out in March.

There is a large gender gap: 40 per cent of male voters will vote Conservative, 39 per cent  Labour and 8 per cent Lib Dem.

But only 29 per cent of women voters  will vote Conservative, while 45 per cent  will vote Labour, and 14 per cent Lib Dem.

On the economy.

Seven out of 10 people want the Government to do a U-turn on the economy to give priority to growth rather than spending cuts.

Some 72 per cent of the public agree that it is time for the Coalition to change its policy so it is focused more on promoting growth and less on cuts, while 17 per cent disagree and 11 per cent don’t know.

Significantly, a majority of  people who voted Conservative (64 per cent) and Liberal Democrat (68 per cent) at the 2010 general election want to see a change of course. So do 86 per cent of people who voted Labour.

Fieldwork Dates: 25th to 28th May 2012, ComRes interviewed 1,001 GB adults by telephone

TSE

Note: Mike Smithson is on holiday until June 7th.

 



h1

Markets on Greece

Monday, May 28th, 2012

IG have put up a couple of markets in the past week regarding Greece.

The bets can be located in their binary betting market section.

TSE

Note: Mike Smithson is on holiday until June 7th.



h1

How does the coalition untangle itself before the election?

Monday, May 28th, 2012

It seems very unlikely that the coalition parties will have an electoral pact/coupon at the next general election, so Vince Cable’s comments on the BBC last night confirm that (if confirmation was needed).

He said

“Everybody involved knows that before the next general election – the two parties will have to establish their own separate platforms and identity but how that disengagement takes place, over what time period is very much an issue for the future, certainly not something we’re talking about at the moment.”

He added that “of course” there would have to be a disengagement “because we will be competing as a separate party with a separate manifesto and I am sure the Tories think exactly the same way”

So how do they untangle themselves before the election?

Do they move to a supply and confidence approach from late 2014, or something else?

Is there a solution that would benefit and suit both coalition parties?

TSE

Note: Mike Smithson is on holiday until June 7th.



h1

Continuation Thread

Sunday, May 27th, 2012



h1

Ed retains his YouGov leadership lead for a third week.

Saturday, May 26th, 2012

The Leadership scores

David Cameron is on minus 26 (minus 30 last week)

Ed Miliband is on minus 23 (minus 27 last week)

Nick Clegg is on minus 55 (minus 56 last week)

Other yougov polling.

The coverage of Cameron “chillaxing” doesn’t seem to have done any particular damage – only 33% say that he doesn’t work hard enough, compared to 39% who think he gets the balance right and 4% who think he works too hard.

The YouGov VI is

Con 31%

Lab 43%

Lib Dems 8%

UKIP 8%

Others 9%

 

TSE

Note: Mike Smithson is on holiday until June 7th.

 



h1

The Eurovision open thread

Saturday, May 26th, 2012

Tonight is that great annual event, The Eurovision song contest.

It will be interesting to see if the issues in the Eurozone affects voting tonight.

I’m not expecting the Germans to give the Greeks zwölf punkte or the Greeks to give the Germans δώδεκα σημεία, but will the rest of Europe give the Greeks a sympathy vote?

There have been rumours that some countries don’t want their contestants winning as they don’t want the costs of hosting the event next year (which probably explains why Ireland have selected Jedward for two years in a row and why Engelbert is representing the UK this time around)

I’m not expecting Engelbert to win either, I’ll be happy if he doesn’t finish bottom, my money is on Serbia, Russia and Greece.

I’m not expecting any polls other than YouGov tonight, if this changes, this post will be updated.

TSE

Note: Mike Smithson is on holiday until June 7th.



h1

Should you be betting on PRESIDENT Romney?

Saturday, May 26th, 2012

Could we see the prices converge?

At the start of May I suggested that a bet on Romney for president looked like a value proposition. At the time his Betfair price was 3.15 and I put the equivalent of three months of my state pension on it.

Since then the price has edged in and is now at 2.7 – that’s 1.7/1 for those who have yet to come to terms with the betting exchange’s odds format.

I think this is going to move in further. All the polling suggests a very tight race and the GOP nominee and his supporting organisations will probably have a lot more to spend.

    Mitt is where he is today after utilising brutal negative TV ads against his Republican opponents.

    He’ll do the same and much more with Obama. This is going to be a bloody battle to end all bloody battles.

Both contenders should be close to evens. Romney isn’t and he’s the value bet.

Mike Smithson