Baroness Warsi	3/1
Jeremy Hunt	5/1
Caroline Spelman	6/1
Cheryl Gillan	8/1
Ken Clarke	10/1
Theresa May	10/1
Lord Strathclyde	12/1
Andrew Lansley	14/1
Vince Cable	16/1
Michael Moore	16/1
William Hague	25/1
Owen Paterson	25/1
Nick Clegg	25/1
Ed Davey	33/1
Andrew Mitchell	33/1
Michael Gove	33/1
George Osborne	33/1
David Cameron	33/1
Iain Duncan Smith	40/1
Danny Alexander	40/1
Justine Greening	50/1
Eric Pickles	50/1
Philip Hammond	66/1

Who’ll be out in Dave’s first big shake-up?

Apart from the US election the big political betting story over the next six weeks will be who’ll be in and who’ll be out in Cameron’s first re-shuffle. There’ve been lots of reports that this’ll happen in thefirst week in September just before the commons returns.

Surprisingly the bookies have been reluctant to provide direct markets. I’d like to be wagering on one or two who I think will be promoted.

What we still do have is the next cabinet exit betting. You need to check the rules for each individual bookmaker but my reading is that Ladbrokes is one of the few to have provided for the consequences of more than one minister leaving the cabinet on a single day. The firm says quite specifically that in that eventuality the “dead heat” rules apply.

This means that if you’ve got, say, a £50 bet at evens that Jeremy Hunt will be out then your bet is split into the number of cabinet ministers leaving. In this case the firm would pay out one fifth of the bet. The rest of your stake would settled as a loser.

In the Hunt case you’d get £10 winnings and £10 stake back but you’d still be £30 out of pocket.

So the best betting strategy is to steer clear of those at the top of the betting and see if you can find value amongst the longer priced options.

I’ve taken the 16/1 against Michael Moore because the word is that the yellows would like to have a woman amongst their cabinet ministers and Moore seems the most vulnerable.

So if Moore is amongst five ministers to exit on the same day then one fifth of your stake, £10, would be settled at 16/1. Your return would be £160 plus the part of your stake that has been allocated, £10, being returned.

Good luck.

Mike Smithson @MSmithsonPB