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Should Dave and George worry about the ConHome survey?

July 30th, 2012

It is important to state that ConHome’s regular surveys cannot be described as proper polls although, increasingly, they get picked up by the media as a barometer of opinion of the party’s grass-roots.

    And it’s the fact that national newspapers like the Times and Independent take them seriously that makes them important.

    Today’s numbers, particularly the “view” of the general election outcome and which politician the “grass-roots” would like as head of the party will create some waves.

But there is little doubt from proper polling that both Dave and George are not getting the same levels of support from Tory voters as they were at the start of the year. The July Ipsos-MORI Monitor has Cameron in his worst since October 2007 just before Gordon Brown’s U-turn on holding an early general election.

Osborne’s numbers have been in decline across a range of pollsters and amongst Tory voters since March.

But it’s hard to see this having an short-term political impact. Cameron is leader and PM and he wants to stay and while that remains the he’s in charge. There is no obvious threat to his position.

Mike Smithson @MSmithsonPB