And a Vince leadership would take the LDs to 19% The ICM poll for September is just out and sees Labour move to their best position for 9 years with the firm that is widely regarded as the gold standard. The figures with changes on August are CON 31%-3/LAB 41%+ 2/LD 14%-1 Although double digit LAB leads have became almost common place with other firms ICM had generally been showing Miliband’s party doing worse. The other big news is that…
Compete for £1,000 in free bets as prizes Thanks to the generosity of William Hill we are able to announce the 2012 White House Race competition. All you have to do is guess the vote share winner gap, down to two decimal points, of your selection There will be 3 prizes of £500, £350 and £150 in free bets for the closest predictions. Note that it is entirely possible for the vote share winner not to be the next President….
Would it have been better to say nothing? Within the last hour Andrew Mitchell has made a statement on the events that have dogged his party now for three complete news cycles. He reiterated his original denial about not using the words that were attributed to him and made clear that he would not be resigning. So what was the purpose of the breakfast time statement? Mitchell said he wanted to draw a line under the incident yet his move…
It’s possible that they could finish in 5th place Talking with delegates here at the Lib Dem conference I get little sense of any appetite for a change at the top just now. The big hope is the same as the Tories – that come the May 2015 general election there will be the glimmer of an economic recovery and all the pain will have been worthwhile. Maybe – maybe not. But before then they have an electoral challenge that…
Edmund in Tokyo’s inaugural guest slot If the US presidential election were held tomorrow, it looks fairly clear who would win. Nate Silver’s “Nowcast”, showing his model’s estimate of the probability of an Obama win would be if the election day polls were the same as the polls today, currently stands at 95.8%. Neither Silver nor the betting markets currently think an Obama win in November is anything like that likely. Silver’s forecast for the actual election stands at a…
YouGov finds that the Tories would have a 4% lead if Boris was leader &Vince led the LDs.CON 39%/LAB 35%/LD 11% — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) September 23, 2012 If Boris led Tories &Clegg and Miliband still in place YouGov find it would be CON 38%/LAB 38%/LD 9% — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) September 23, 2012 If Boris led Tories &Clegg and Miliband still in place YouGov find it would be CON 38%/LAB 38%/LD 9% — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) September 23, 2012…
Have they been given the space to emerge onto the main stage? Being taken seriously is the first and probably the biggest challenge for any group or individual outside the mainstream seeking to break in. Politics, like so much of society, has institutional inertia and it takes a lot to disrupt the virtuous circles keeping the main parties in place and the rest out. Put simply, without support, you don’t get any attention or credibility; without credibility and attention, you…
Daily Mirror Just 25% of LDs think they’ll do better keeping him A new Survation poll for today’s Daily Mirror, taken partly after Clegg “Sorry” video shows no change for the party, The only movement on the firm’s last poll in the Mail on Sunday a month ago has been a three point increase in the LAB vote at the expense of others. These are the figures: CON 30(nc):LAB 40(+3):LD 10(nc): UKIP 12(nc) The firm almost always reports the biggest…