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Month: October 2012

How Dave, Ed and Nick compare against each other – the latest Ipsos-MORI data

How Dave, Ed and Nick compare against each other – the latest Ipsos-MORI data

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Good chart from Ipsos-MORI showing how satisfaction with all leaders is on the decline with Clegg the worst. twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) October 26, 2012 As ever with the monthly Ipsos-MORI political monitor there’s a mass of data and colourful charts one of which is featured above. Also this moth the firm asked, for the first time since January 2011, the “Like him, like his party” question. We haven’t got the full detail but several bullet points are available…

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A Romney victory could increase Cameron’s international isolation

A Romney victory could increase Cameron’s international isolation

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Henry G Manson on the Tories and foreign relations The Conservative Party relationships in Europe are very limited. David Cameron’s decision in the 2005 leadership contest to commit to leaving the mainstream conservative EPP-ED group in exchange for Eurosceptic support has had implications for the Prime Minister and government. The natural alliances he could have forged with conservative counterparts in France and Germany have not flourished in the following years. This week saw more frustration rom Merkel with Cameron’s approach….

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The polls and the early voting suggest that Ohio is moving away from Mitt Romney

The polls and the early voting suggest that Ohio is moving away from Mitt Romney

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Little by little Ohio edges slowly away from Mitt Romney. See latest Real Clear Politics chart. twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) October 25, 2012 And on Betfair the Obama price moves to a 1/2 Real Clear Politics , which has been a leader in poll averaging in the US is quite selective about the polls that go into its calculation. It includes those where the field-work is carried out by robo-calling but does not take into account online surveys. Be…

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Suddenly Theresa May comes into the frame as Dave’s successor

Suddenly Theresa May comes into the frame as Dave’s successor

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Theresa May could do to Cameron what Maggie Thatcher did to Heath. 12/1 for next Tory leader. twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) October 25, 2012 Some CON MPs think she’s “on manoeuvres” I was very struck by a Telegraph article a couple of days ago from ex-Tory front-bencher and now CONHome blogger, Paul Goodman under the heading “Mrs May might – why Tories are tipping Theresa May for the very top”. This is how he started:- “If you are a…

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After the Donald Trump damp squib and Gallup the betting sentiment moves back to Obama

After the Donald Trump damp squib and Gallup the betting sentiment moves back to Obama

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Today’s polls from the swing states Nevada: Obama 50%, Romney 48% (Rasmussen) New Hampshire: Romney 50%, Obama 48% (Rasmussen) New Hampshire: Obama 48%, Romney 45% (Lake Research) Ohio: Obama 49%, Romney 44% (Time) Ohio: Obama 47%, Romney 44% (SurveyUSA) Ohio: Obama 48%, Romney 48% (Rasmussen) Ohio: Obama 46%, Romney 44% (Lake Resaearch) Virginia: Obama 50%, Romney 43% (Old Dominion University) Virginia: Obama 49%, Romney 46% (Newsmax/Zogby) Just a reminder about tomorrow night We are having our third Dirty Dicks gathering…

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Last week seem to have taken its toll on Dave

Last week seem to have taken its toll on Dave

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Lacklustre performance from Dave at PMQs twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) October 24, 2012 Cam looks tired. Oyster eyes. Always said he looks like a young Willie Whitelaw. #PMQs — Iain Martin (@iainmartin1) October 24, 2012 PMQs; Ed Mili pretty confident, but Cameron has his tail up now the economic news is getting better… — tom bradby (@tombradby) October 24, 2012 Not up to his usual PMQ form & Ed has his tail up Many observers think that Dave had…

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The betting sentiment moves a couple of notches to Romney

The betting sentiment moves a couple of notches to Romney

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Betfair punters move the Romney price up – see chart showing movement over past 24 hours twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) October 24, 2012 What will Donald Trump’s news do? Given how tight the national polling is it has, I’d suggest, been quite surprising that even as late as yesterday afternoon you could still get Romney at 2/1 on Betfair. That’s moved a fair bit since then and the question is whether this switch will run out of steam –…

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