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Month: November 2012

ComRes polling data – How current UKIP supporters said they voted at the general election

ComRes polling data – How current UKIP supporters said they voted at the general election

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Just one in three current UKIP supporters voted CON at the 2010 general election. See split. twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 25, 2012 Putting the UKIP surge in context for 2015? The latest data from ComRes shows that one third of those now saying they will support UKIP voted Conservative at the last general election. Disgruntled Lib Dems make up a large contingent but only 3% of them said they voted Labour. This puts into context the potential electoral…

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Nadine’s ended her jungle ordeal and is in fighting form attacking Dave and George

Nadine’s ended her jungle ordeal and is in fighting form attacking Dave and George

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Nadine in fighting form in LBC interview with Iain Dale bit.ly/UlXORf twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 25, 2012 Over to you Mr Chief Whip Nadine Dorries spoke to Iain Dale from Australia this morning on LBC 97.3 DALE: Going back to the issue of sexism, it’s been interesting that a lot of the MPs who have been most critical of you have actually been female Conservative MPs. Do you think that they’re going to send you to Coventry when…

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Britain and the EU – the party divide

Britain and the EU – the party divide

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Britain’s relationship with Europe: How voters from different parties see it differently – today’s YouGov twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 25, 2012 The chart has been prepared from the latest polling by YouGov on attitudes towards the EU. On the main issue of how people would vote in a referendum the overall split is 49% withdraw and 32% remain. The chart shows how voters for the parties divide. There is no column for UKIP because YouGov do not provide…

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Is it possible that Labour might not hold all three by elections it is defending on Thursday?

Is it possible that Labour might not hold all three by elections it is defending on Thursday?

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“@greenknight2010: @croydongreens Hedgebetting?!!??! twitter.com/GreenKnight201…” @johnloony — Croydon&SuttonGreens (@CroydonGreens) November 23, 2012 Ladbrokes make it a 4/1 on such a possibility Latest Ladbrokes by-election betting : Rotherham LAB 1/6: RES 5/1: UKIP 12/1Croydon N LAB 1/10: RES 5/1: UKIP 25/1 bit.ly/c5gpH6 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 24, 2012 Latest Hills by-election betting. Croydon N LAB 1/40: RES 15/2/ UKIP 80/1. Rotherham markets not shown at moment bit.ly/u6wr8r — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 24, 2012 PaddyPower by-election betting: Croydon N LAB 1/14:…

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While UKIP supporters are in the news here’s some polling from last weekend’s ComRes survey

While UKIP supporters are in the news here’s some polling from last weekend’s ComRes survey

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The BNP in strong 2nd place in “other” party preferences of UKIP voters from ComRes last week.See chart. twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 24, 2012 Because UKIP are doing well the sub-sample on which this was based was on 173.

Council tax reform is the only viable Mansion Tax

Council tax reform is the only viable Mansion Tax

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David Herdson on the options for Osborne When George Osborne delivers his Autumn statement on December 5, the figures in his report will be at best mixed: the deficit is down on the peak but not by as much as expected and progress may have ground to a halt; employment is at record levels but long-term unemployment is also rising; above all, while growth returned to the UK economy in Q3, the annual performance has been well below expectations and…

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How saying goodbye to Gordon and being in opposition has boosted Labour “likeability” numbers

How saying goodbye to Gordon and being in opposition has boosted Labour “likeability” numbers

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Being in opposition is doing wonders for Labour’s “likeability” ratings. See Ipsos-MORI data 2007-2012 twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 23, 2012 But what will it look like if they return to power? The chart above is based on Ipsos-MORI’s October “Leaders and Parties” polling. Mike Smithson For the latest polling and political betting news Follow @MSmithsonPB

Henry G Manson asks: Can the Conservatives win in the North?

Henry G Manson asks: Can the Conservatives win in the North?

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What needs to change to win the key marginals? There was a fringe meeting at Conservative Party conference this autumn (see above) on how their party can win more votes and seats in the North. Without new boundaries it will be increasingly hard for the blue team to win a parliamentary majority without gaining more seats in the North of England, so it’s a live electoral issue. A recording of the debate has been posted online and it’s a good…

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