The battle for Eastleigh – the biggest by-election betting event ever

February 28th, 2013

How Betfair punters have seen the past three weeks

Betting should continue right up to the declaration

Generally a good way to follow how an election is to look at the betting prices – particularly on Betfair where what we see are real trades.

Normally the campaigns only start to get a good sense of the outcome by late afternoon.

    The ones running proper GOTV (Get Out The Vote) operations have tellers at each polling station where they record the electoral number of voters prepared to divulge this information. The data is then fed back to the various campaign offices where those who’ve voted are electonically ticked off so the focus can be put on those yet to vote.

The art is to ensure that as many as your supporters as possible make it to the polling station.

By mid-afternoon party campaigns will start to get an idea of what proportion of “theirs” have voted compared with those of other parties and this starts to seep out.

Of course not all the people down as one of your supporters might not actually have cast his/her vote for your candidate.

Mike Smithson

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