Cyprus – the Marf view
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My first Ukip GE2015 bet: 8/1 with Hills that they’ll win 2+ MPs
What’s the current most popular #GE2015 Ukip bet is the 8/1 from William Hill that they’ll win 2+ MPs twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) March 25, 2013 Quite simply Ukip has a better than 11.1% chance of doing it Whenever punters make bets they are NOT making predictions. What they are doing is looking at the odds and deciding that the chance of the outcome happening is greater than the implied probability that the price suggests. Until now the view…
Monday’s front pages are now coming through
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David Herdson says the Leveson law could be negating parliament’s most precious principle
It is unconstitutionally seeking to bind its successors?David Herdson The reporting of the implementation (or not, depending on your point of view) of the Leveson proposals have understandably concentrated on the regulation of the media. It is, after all, the media who have been reporting it and there is a tendency within the industry to believe that everyone else finds them as interesting as they find themselves. That’s not to say the reforms aren’t significant. They are – or at…
If Scotland rejects independence it will be because Scottish women are not convinced
Latest Scottish referendum poll for S Times has huge gender divide. YES 7% ahead with men but 27% behind with women. twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) March 24, 2013 The Sept 2014 referendum: The testosterone factor With just 18 months to go before the Scottish referendum there’s a new poll from Panelbase in the Sunday Times. Overall the split is 36% YES to 46^% NO. The balance of those sampled have not made up their minds. The poll used the…
The Sunday newspaper front pages as they come in
Thanks to BBC news for providing the embedded widget. You’ll need to refresh every so often to ensure that other papers are loaded. Pie chat from Observer/Opinium poll on what those sampled think will happen @ #GE2015. bit.ly/168KcNn twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) March 23, 2013 Mike Smithson For the latest polling and political betting news Follow @MSmithsonPB
Maybe Ukip could be doing to the Tories what the rump of the SDP did to the yellows nearly a quarter of a century ago
A reminder from 1989 what party splits can do to electoral prospects.Look at how the rump of the SDP split the vote twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) March 23, 2013 See the by-election that made William Hague an MP This week there’s been a bit of focus on the creation of the Lib Dems which was formed by the merger of the old Liberal party and the SDP exactly 25 years ago. It wasn’t so easy for the new party…
LAB remains an odds-on favourite to win most votes at EURO2014 but don’t rule out Ukip
Which party will get most votes in the 2014 EU elections -chart from Oddschecker showing the most popular bets twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) March 23, 2013 This could be the opportunity for Farage? There is little doubt that the big story in British electoral politics at the moment is the rise of Ukip. In recent weeks this has moved from just something that is seen in the polls but to the party doing well in the first past the…