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If there were a Newark by-election…

May 31st, 2013

The major breaking news this lunchtime is Newark MP Patrick Mercer resigning the Tory whip following an investigation by the Telegraph and Panorama.

In his statement, Mercer says

“I am taking legal advice about these allegations – and I have referred myself to the Parliamentary Commissioner for Standards.

My thoughts on the immediate consequences for this are at first, there’s probably one less letter demanding a leadership vote in the Tory party now which will bring a smile to David Cameron’s face, but we could have a by-election, and would that bring a smile to Cameron’s face?

Now if there were a by-election in this seat, here’s the result last time

Could UKIP take this seat?

Here’s the result from the local elections, from Newark East and Newark West from the locals this year, as we can see the Tories held the seats, but both UKIP and Labour were up and the Tories and Lib Dems were down.

Newark East

and Newark West

Tim Shipman tweets

and


 

You can get odds of 7/2 with William Hill for UKIP to win a by-election in his parliament.

TSE

Note: Mike Smithson is currently on holiday