Archive for June, 2013

h1

Suddenly the high rollers get attracted by the #IndyRef betting

Thursday, June 27th, 2013

Two NO bets of £200k each reported this week alone

Hills tighten the NO price to 1/7



h1

LAB moves to 42pc and UKIP slip to fourth in today’s YouGov

Thursday, June 27th, 2013

Labour appears to be benefitting most

For the first time since mid-April UKIP has dropped below the LDs in fourth place in the YouGov daily poll.

At the same time Labour continues to advance and today’s share and recent results suggest that the party is benefitting most from UKIP going off the boil.

This is just one poll from one pollster but today’s finding reflects a trend that we’ve seen in recent days.

My view is that since the blitz of coverage following the May 2nd local the focus has waned and that might impact more with pollsters like YouGov which don’t put the purples on their opening voting intention question page. Instead respondents have to tick “some other party” before they get the option.

Mike Smithson

For the latest polling and political betting news




h1

Some of the headlines after the big statement are not quite what Osborne must have been hoping for

Thursday, June 27th, 2013

The Sun’s treatment highlights the danger of Twitter

When I first saw Osborne’s pre-sending review statement Tweet with a picture of himself at his desk eating a burger it looked like a mistake. It was just too contrived and in any case the Chancellor is always going to have a battle convincing us that he’s a man of the people.

This is how the paper is reporting it:-

“The Chancellor tweeted a snap of himself “finalising” work on his spending cuts over a burger and chips.

But it was a gourmet meal from a trendy diner with a price tag of up to a whopping £9.70. The Sun can reveal the burger Mr Osborne scoffed at his Treasury desk came from new chain Byron.

It was ordered from one of its branches in Waterloo 1.6 miles away — snubbing TEN closer McDonald’s outlets where burgers start at 99p…”

Remember this is the front page lead from Britain’s best selling newspaper.

The message, surely, is to be ultra-careful about this sort of thing because the potential for it backfiring is huge.

The other papers are what you’d expect though I guess the FT is not as helpful as Osborne might have hoped.

Mike Smithson

For the latest polling and political betting news




h1

Methinks that George should have put economics before the politics

Wednesday, June 26th, 2013

He’s becoming more like Gordon Brown at every turn

The thing that struck me most about Osborne’s spending review statement was how little it had to do with the economics and how much it was about setting the political backcloth for GE2015.

In this, of course, you have to remember that as shadow chancellor, first under Michael Howard and then under Cameron, Osborne sat across the chamber from Gordon Brown – the past-master of making everything political.

Firstly there was no need to have a statement at all at this stage. It could have waited at least a year but Osborne’s objective was creating elephant traps for Ed Balls who knows more than anybody else how the Brown Chancellorship worked.

I switched off my initial notion that this was a serious statement when almost at the start Osbo used that appalling Brown cliche, “hard-working families”.

Then we went into all the attacks on Labour’s and Ed Balls’s record which we’ve heard so many times before that they are starting to lose their potency.

A much quieter speech with less of the political rhetoric and much more of the economic analysis was what the occasion demanded.

    Osborne comes over as too political for his own good – for as soon as as people start thinking that then he’s failed. He’s just another politico trying to hang on to his job.

All this is offset by the fact that his opposite number, Ed Balls, is precisely the same.

But does politics have to be like this?

Mike Smithson

For the latest polling and political betting news




h1

Dramatic events in Australian politics

Wednesday, June 26th, 2013

The country’s first woman PM deposed

Watch the live ABC stream here.



h1

Revised seat projection approach from Martin Baxter points to UKIP starting to win Commons seats on a 16% share not 23%

Wednesday, June 26th, 2013

Time to look at UKIP seat betting?

As has been highlighted a fair bit recently UKIP have a real challenge converting the substantial poll shares now being reported into seats because of the way the first past the post system operates with the smaller parties.

Now Martin Baxter of Electoral Calculus has published a revised approach to calculating how many MPs UKIP will win at different GB vote share levels reducing the projected threshold from 23%+ to just 16%.

The Electoral Calculus model seeks to calculate how many seats each party will get on given vote shares and has been around since the 1990s. The broad assumption is of a uniform national swing (UNS) with some tweaks. In the article explaining his change Baxter writes:

” The methodology for this calculation has been revised since its initial publication. It now adds an additional factor to allow for the fact that seats do not all behave identically at a general election, but instead there is natural variation between them. These projections now allow for that natural variation, which increases the chances of UKIP winning some seats, even at low support levels..

The full Baxter article looks in detail on the reasons why the system is so challenging for Farage’s party.

Two months ago I got a three figure bet on at 8/1 William Hill that UKIP would win more than one seat at GE2015. That price is no longer available but you can now get 2/1 that they’ll win 1-5 seats and 5/1 that it’ll be 5+.

Baxter could be influential and my guess is that we’ll see the prices tighten.

For the latest polling and political betting news




h1

PB Nighthawks is now open

Tuesday, June 25th, 2013

 

Home of the web’s best political conversation

Why not relax, and converse into the night on the day’s events in PB NightHawks.

If you like political betting, welcome to PB, Nobody Does It Better than PB.

If you’ve always been a lurker, why not delurk tonight, no one will think You’re So Vain for delurking.

The round up of recent events (click on the links below, and it will bring up the relevant story)

TSE



h1

Another PB betting tip comes good

Tuesday, June 25th, 2013

It’s not often that apparently long-term political bets come good very quickly and the bookies pay out.

Last Thursday I urged everybody to get on 3/1 that Ladbrokes was offering that George Osborne would be called Jeffrey in the Commons before the end of the year.

As it turned out someone did call Osbo just that before Ladbrokes had got their market up and quite rightly that was not counted.

But today at Treasury Questions Labour’s AB’s Anas Sarwar also used the Jeffrey word, which Obama had mistakenly called Osbo last week at the G8 meeting, and the bet became good.

Good on Ladbrokes for settling the market so fast.

Mike Smithson

For the latest polling and political betting news