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The immigration poster that symbolises the Dave’s dilemma. Moves to win back UKIP switchers risk alienating 2010 LDs

July 31st, 2013

How the two key swing groups reacted to the campaign

As we keep on saying two big things have happened to voters since GE2010: The switch to Labour by 2010 LD voters following their party’s coalition deal with the Tories and the shrinkage of the CON vote as a result of the UKIP surge.

Being seen to be tough on immigration has been part of the Tory response – hence the poster van campaign. The YouGov polling above shows how current UKIP voters are responding to the move. But look at the 2010 Lib Dems. They take a very different view.

At GE2010 about one in four of all votes were for the LDs. Since then a large proportion have switched to LAB which adds to the challenge for the Tories.

    Ultimately Lynton Crosby has to find a way stemming the flow to UKIP while trying to minimise the level of LD>LAB switching.

Measures like the van poster might help with the former but make the latter harder.

This one will continue to be great to watch.

Mike Smithson

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