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Syria

August 27th, 2013

The above is the findings from the YouGov poll for the Sunday Times.

YouGov noted on Sunday that

The most recent survey supports findings in a YouGov survey from April, which suggested the use of chemical weapons in Syria would make little if any difference at all to the British public’s disinclination towards greater involvement. 

Overnight there was further YouGov polling released on the reported plans for Syria and it makes for grim reading for David Cameron.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

As Jack Straw put it, “There is no doubt that the experience of Iraq has raised the bar of scepticism by the British House of Commons on behalf of the British people about whether military action is justified.”

If Dave is looking for any comfort, his Libya action proved unpopular at the time.

The risks for him is that once the military actions begins, it could escalate and he ceases to be in control of events, and that’s he effectively allying himself with the Syrian opposition, who have, inter alia, have been reported to have done the following

1) Eating the heart of a Syrian soldier.
2) Has openly sworn its loyalty to Al Qaeda
3) Have threatened to use chemical weapons themselves.
4) ‘Beheaded a Christian and fed him to the dogs’

For Labour there are also risks in whatever they do, as they try and deal with their Iraq Legacy and contrition therein also Dianne Abbot may resign rather than support military action in Syria, and she added this bon mot.

She said Tony Blair’s decision to join the “clamour” for an attack on Syria was “another reason why it’s probably a bad idea”.

For the Lib Dems, part of their support came from their opposition to the Iraq war, given the unpopularity of intervention in Syria, if any of those remaining Lib Dems are only there because of Lib Dem opposition to Iraq, then Lib Dem share of the vote could go lower.

If all the three major party Leaders support intervention in Syria, then there could be an opportunity for UKIP, Nigel Farage has warned Britain cannot go to war with Syria “on a whim,” stating “horrible though it is, there is nothing the British military can do to make things better.”

Could UKIP become the home of voters opposed to intervention in Syria and see their share of the vote increase?

For the Western leaders looking to intervene are hoping that they aren’t following in the footsteps of Marcus Licinius Crassus whose political ambitions ended as he sought military glory whilst he was Governor of Syria.

Could this be the black swan of this parliament? Who would have twenty years ago that a former London ophthalmologist could have such an impact on this country?

The recall of parliament on Thursday promises to make for fascinating viewing.

TSE