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Betting on when will a Conservative lead with YouGov occur

August 29th, 2013

Paddy Power have opened a market on when we’ll see a Conservative lead with YouGov.

Overnight the latest yougov poll was published, it shows the Labour lead at 3%

The below graph shows the monthly average of the YouGov Polls since February

Whilst these charts show the changes for each party and the Labour lead since last month, since May, and since February.

The trend is clear, Labour’s share of the vote has been falling slightly month by month since February, and their lead has fallen month by month (bar May, when the Conservative share of the vote fell even further, due to the afterglow of the UKIP performance in the local elections)

Looking from February to August, Labour’s lead has fallen from an average 10.95% to 5.68% so far this month, their share of the vote has declined by 4.02% from 42.60% to 38.58%.

But where did that 4.02% go? In the same period, the Conservative share of the vote went up 1.24% from 31.65% to 32.89%. UKIP would appear to be the recipients of Labour’s votes, as their share of the vote went up by 2.79% in that period, whilst the Lib Dems went down 1.11% between August and February.

If we look at the period between now and May, Labour’s lead has fallen by 3.79% in that period, so again we’re seeing Labour’s lead falling at around 1% per month. Since May, Labour’s share of the vote fell 0.66% from 39.24% to 38.58%. The Conservatives went up 3.13% in the same time frame, as UKIP’s share of the vote fell 2.49% from 14.33% to 11.84%.

If present trends continue, with Labour’s lead decreasing by around 1% per month, the Conservatives could take the lead in early 2014.

That said, given the lead has been as low as 3%, such as today, and with the Party conferences coming up, when parties have higher visibility has in the past led to a (short term) poll boost, fortunately at the end of last year, I backed the conservatives to have a lead with YouGov at sometime in 2013 at 2/1 with Ladbrokes, so I’m going to back Paddy Power’s first half of 2014 option.

But I can see why some PBers may wish to go for 2013, and there’s by my estimate, just over 100 more YouGov polls due to be published between now and the end of the year, it only takes one poll for it to be a winner.

 

TSE