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Month: August 2013

History suggests the Tories will see their share of the vote decline in 2015

History suggests the Tories will see their share of the vote decline in 2015

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In recent weeks there’s been a positivity about the Tories’ chances of winning outright in 2015, Michael Gove was reported to be convinced of that, and over at Betfair, the implied probability of a Tory majority has been increasing in recent weeks (though there has been an easing back from the recent high point) But looking at the table below, which shows the the change of the share of the vote at the election between the governing party and the…

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Which party leader will be the first to step aside?

Which party leader will be the first to step aside?

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Which leader do you think is most likely to go first? David Cameron Ed Miliband Nick Clegg Nigel Farage      Up to the end of July I thought that Ed Miliband was the leader most secure in his post with Cameron and Clegg fighting it out for second place. Now that has changed quite rapidly as we saw with the “Labour Insider’s” guest slot a couple of days ago on how EdM became much more vulnerable with the exit…

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Take the 8-1 William Hill hung parliament but no coalition bet

Take the 8-1 William Hill hung parliament but no coalition bet

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Latest William Hill http://t.co/MbilRLa6MQ prices on the next government CON maj 3/1: CON:LD coalition 7/1 See all pic.twitter.com/z8xPUrcFsl — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) August 21, 2013 At 8/1 the current best value GE2015 bet is the “other” option in the William Hill list above. That there’ll be no overall majority but there’ll be no coalition formed. Over the last few days we’ve seen the reports of leading CON backbenchers demanding a formal role in agreeing the next coalition if the outcome on seats…

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Boris comparing Miliband to Stalin does not fit with Cameron’s “weak, weak, weak” rhetoric

Boris comparing Miliband to Stalin does not fit with Cameron’s “weak, weak, weak” rhetoric

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Boris: Ed Miliband is just like Stalin because he "shafted" his brother http://t.co/bMpcjk5WJP — Sun Politics (@Sun_Politics) August 21, 2013 One of the strategies that the Tories were said to have agreed on before the recess was to stop referring to the way that Ed Miliband won the party leadership by “shafting” his brother. The reasoning was that this act, on the face of it, rather conflicts with their attempt to portray EdM as being weak and ineffectual. Well the…

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Nighthawks is now open

Nighthawks is now open

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Home of the web’s best political conversation If you’re Footloose, and fancy free tonight, why not relax, and converse into the night on the day’s events in PB NightHawks. If you’re a lurker, why not delurk tonight, don’t worry, delurking isn’t the Highway to The Danger Zone. The round up of recent events (click on the links below, and it will bring up the relevant link) Is Ed Miliband heading for the same grisly fate as Gordon Brown? (Ed is also…

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This just possibly could be the moment for Yvette: A Labour insider gives his view of EdM’s prospects and what might happen

This just possibly could be the moment for Yvette: A Labour insider gives his view of EdM’s prospects and what might happen

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If Ed survives till the end of October he should be okay If (and it’s still a big if) Ed M leaves before election then Yvette will almost certainly take over. She’s been conspicuous by her silence this summer. Shocking really. If however Ed M disappoints at general election then Andy Burnham will also go for it and have a pretty decent chance as will Chuka Umunna. The trouble for Ed is that his team around him is so weak…

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ICM leader ratings in the Mirror make miserable reading for Miliband

ICM leader ratings in the Mirror make miserable reading for Miliband

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New ICM poll for Mirror ratchets up the pressure on EdM http://t.co/zzfiy4giAn Fewer than half LAB voters satisfied pic.twitter.com/vcwlNe8uEc — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) August 20, 2013 Is his survival till GE2015 looking less likely? There some new polling from ICM for the LAB friendly Mirror, linked to in the Tweet above, that’s certain to add to party’s jitters even though the voting intention trend continues to be for Labour. Overall just 21% of those polled said they were satisfied with his…

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Graham Brady is wrong: Dave never had the option of a minority government in May 2010

Graham Brady is wrong: Dave never had the option of a minority government in May 2010

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The 1922 Committee chair, Graham Grady was on the World at One this lunchtime repeating one of the great myths about the formation of the coalition in May 2010. He said that he’d have preferred a minority CON government – but it is hard to see where there was a point when that was going to be possible. I’ve made this point before but Gord had all the cards in his hand on May 7th 2010. The Tories had failed…

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