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Month: October 2013

The economy could be growing too far and too fast

The economy could be growing too far and too fast

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What problems does the rapid upturn bring the government? It seems a long time ago that the opposition, members of the media and economic commentators were speculating about the possibility of a triple-dip recession.  In fact, it’s in only six months that the economic debate has changed markedly.  Gone are the arguments about flat-lining and the need for stimulus and instead the agenda’s moved on to the cost of living. On one level, that’s not unreasonable.  Incomes are rising more…

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Dear Dr. Fisher. This is what Professor John Curtice describes as “Labour’s crutch” – the 2010 LD>LAB switchers

Dear Dr. Fisher. This is what Professor John Curtice describes as “Labour’s crutch” – the 2010 LD>LAB switchers

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If this remains then CON majority chances are very slim Dr Stephen Fisher has responded to the first wave of comments on his new GE2015 prediction model which suggests that the Tories have a 58% chance of a majority. I think a key issue about the Fisher approach is the one featured in the chart above – 2010 LDs who’ve switched to LAB. The scale of the LD>LAB switchers is huge. Currently it is greater than the cumulative increase in…

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New GE2015 projection from Oxford political scientist, Stephen Fisher, suggests that Tories have 57 pc chance of a majority

New GE2015 projection from Oxford political scientist, Stephen Fisher, suggests that Tories have 57 pc chance of a majority

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I have enormous respect for political scientist, Oxford's @StephenDFisher He was key member of team behind the GE2010 exit poll — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) October 25, 2013 GE2015 forecast from Oxford's @StephenDFisher Con : 337 Lab : 265 LD : 21 Con majority of 24 http://t.co/t833vBpSsa — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) October 25, 2013 You can read Stephen’s piece and all the projections here.

Who knows? The public could get a taste for public ownership

Who knows? The public could get a taste for public ownership

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The Henry G Manson Friday column For the last 30 years we’ve heard Prime Ministers Thatcher, Major, Blair and Cameron argue for policies of privatisation, private finance initiatives, public-private partnerships and so on. Whether it’s our utilities or our postal service the belief in the inherent private sector has been steadfast. The private sector failure running the East Coast Main Line led to the state running a portion of Britain’s rail again – and successfully. Our ministers are happy for…

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All yesterday’s by-election results

All yesterday’s by-election results

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Loughborough, Hastings on Charnwood Result: Labour 554 (61%), Conservative 127 (14%), UKIP 111 (12%), British Democrats 85 (9%), Liberal Democrats 26 (3%) Labour HOLD Shepshed West on Charnwood Result: Labour 683 (48%), Conservative 560 (39%), Liberal Democrat 178 (13%) Labour GAIN from Conservative Waterloo on Havant (% Change on 2012 election) Result: Conservative 693 (44% -16%), Liberal Democrat 446 (29% +13%), UKIP 296 (19%), Labour 129 (8% -16%) Conservative HOLD Swing: 15% from Con to Lib Dem Bovey on Teignbridge…

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With with less than 11 month to go before the IndyRef SNP lose the Dunfermline Scottish Parliament by-election to LAB

With with less than 11 month to go before the IndyRef SNP lose the Dunfermline Scottish Parliament by-election to LAB

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@ScottishPol: Victorious Lab candidate Cara Hilton arrives at #Dunfermline count pic.twitter.com/tG4K6nwuvB — Tom Gordon (@ScottishPol) October 25, 2013 LAB GAIN from SNP Dunfermline Scottish Parliament by-election Lab10,275 SNP 7,402 LD 2,852 CON 2,009 UKIP 908 GRN593 Jacobite 161 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) October 25, 2013 May 5 2011 looks like a high point for the SNP never to be repeated Two and half years ago in a result that overturned the polling and betting of only a fortnight earlier the SNP swept to power in the…

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Dunfermline By-Election (Scottish Parliament) : October 24th 2013

Dunfermline By-Election (Scottish Parliament) : October 24th 2013

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Result of the Scottish Parliament in 2011: SNP 69, Lab 37, Con 15, Lib Dem 5, Green 2, Ind 1 (SNP overall majority of 9) Result of constituency at last election: SNP 11,010 (38%), Lab 10,420 (36%), Lib Dem 5,776 (20%), Con 2,093 (7%) SNP GAIN from Lib Dem Candidates duly nominated: Peter Adams (UKIP), John Black (Scottish Jacobite Party), Cara Hilton (Lab), Zara Kitson (Green), Susan Leslie (Lib Dem), James Reekie (Con), Shirley-Anne Somerville (SNP) Dunfermline (and Dunfermline West)…

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Local By-Election Preview : October 24th 2013

Local By-Election Preview : October 24th 2013

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Loughborough, Hastings on Charnwood (Lab Defence) and Shepshed West (Con Defence) Last Local Election (2011): Con 33, Lab 16, BNP 1, Lib Dem 1, Ind 1 (Con overall majority of 14) Loughborough, Hastings Result of last election (2011): (emboldened denotes elected) Labour 1,163, 1,104 Conservative 612, 492 Candidates duly nominated: Simon Atkins (Lib Dem), Sarah Maynard Smith (Lab), Andy McWilliam (UKIP), Judith Spence (Con), Kevan Stafford (British Democrats, Stop Immigration, Leave EU) Shepshed West Result of last election (2011): (emboldened…

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