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Will UKIP outpoll the Lib Dems at the 2015 General Election

November 30th, 2013

With  less than 18 months to go until the general election, it is worth reviewing that markets that both William Hill and Ladbrokes have on Which party will receive the most votes in the next UK General Election? The Lib Dems or UKIP.

The below table shows the vote shares for the Lib Dems and UKIP in the most recent polls by the various pollsters.

Pollster Lib Dem % UKIP %
Populus (online) 12 7
YouGov (online) 8 14
ComRes (phone) 9 11
Opinium (online) 9 16
Ipsos-Mori (phone) 8 8
TNS-BMRB (online) 8 12
ICM (phone) 13 11
Survation (online) 12 17

As we can see in the majority of the polls, UKIP are currently outpolling the Lib Dems, the only ones where the Lib Dems leads is either with Populus, the pollster that Mike has noted in the past, as being the least favourable to UKIP and the other is the Gold Standard of Voting Intention pollsters, ICM.

Nigel Farage recently announcing plans to field candidates in every seat in 2015 (they contested 558 in 2010) and Lib Dems inevitable strategy in focussing their energies in the seats they already hold, the momentum will probably be with UKIP, and the Tories still haven’t come up with a credible strategy to deal with UKIP’s surge in the polls.

The best odds on the Lib Dems winning this bet is 4/7 with Ladbrokes and for UKIP it is 7/4 with William Hill.

I’m still working out what the best option is, as my normal instinct is not to bet against ICM.

TSE