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Month: November 2013

Tessa Jowell becomes the opening favourite in new market on the LAB candidate to contest the 2016 London Mayoral election

Tessa Jowell becomes the opening favourite in new market on the LAB candidate to contest the 2016 London Mayoral election

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pic.twitter.com/6Qviv6ewle — PolPics (@PolPics) November 25, 2013 Has she got what it takes to win the massive primary? After the general election the biggest UK election from a betting perspective has traditionally been the battle to win the London Mayoralty. There have been four elections since the post was created in 2000 and each has attracted a lot of betting interest. This is massive with a potential electorate of 6m. So far two of the elections have resulted in two…

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Hopi Sen is right: The 2010 LDs now saying don’t know could be crucial and need to be looked at

Hopi Sen is right: The 2010 LDs now saying don’t know could be crucial and need to be looked at

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Markedly more in the marginals have made up their minds We’ve talked a lot on PB about the 2010 LDs who’ve switched to LAB but that is not the whole picture as ex-Labour staffer blogger Hopi Sen notes. In an interesting post he highlights a significant group of voters who hardly get any attention to – the 2010 LDs who now say don’t know. He writes:- These people are not non-voters. They voted. They’re just not sure if, or how,…

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Ladbrokes report that 94pc of all bets on the Scottish #IndyRef have been on NO

Ladbrokes report that 94pc of all bets on the Scottish #IndyRef have been on NO

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New #IndyRef poll from Hexham-based Panelbase for S Times poll puts Yes 38% No 47%. — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 24, 2013 I’m still not convinced that NO is a certainty A few days ago I posted that I wasn’t following the gamblers who have been piling onto NO in the Scots IndyRef because I still think there’s a chance that YES might happen. I’m not alone. During the week Alistair Carmichael, the tough talking LD MP who has recently…

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So far, at least, it is hard to discern a Falkirk or Flowers effect in YouGov’s daily polls

So far, at least, it is hard to discern a Falkirk or Flowers effect in YouGov’s daily polls

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The YouGov/Sunday Times has Con 33% Lab 40% LD9% UKIP 11% So no sign that the Flowers story or Falkirk is impinging on LAB position — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 24, 2013 Labour’s share continues to be very stable Generally pollsters ask the voting intention questioning first before moving on to other issues because they don’t want the process of the polling itself to impact on the voting responses. It has been shown that you can influence voting responses if the question is asked…

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New GE2015 projection from Oxford’s Dr Stephen Fisher points to a 48pc chance of a CON majority

New GE2015 projection from Oxford’s Dr Stephen Fisher points to a 48pc chance of a CON majority

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A month ago the Oxford University political scientist, Dr Stephen Fish, produced his first projection for GE2015 in which he suggested that the Tories had a 57% chance of an overall majority. He’s now produced a follow-up that has a slightly reduced chance of a CON majority – 48%. In terms of seats the Fisher projection has:- Forecast Election Day Seats Con : 323 Lab : 280 LD : 20 Con largest party, but short of a majority by 3…

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The Co-Op in crisis – what now?

The Co-Op in crisis – what now?

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pic.twitter.com/1QxbzvUsgS — PolPics (@PolPics) November 22, 2013 Will the LAB links be another casualty of the Flowers scandal? The scandal surrounding Paul Flowers has had plenty to keep the media entertained: drugs, sex, money, power and the fall from grace not just of a preacher-politician but also, and in parallel, that of the bank he once headed.  However, while the human interest may lie in the man, the longer term political consequences of the events lie with the questions that…

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Local By-Election Results : November 21st 2013

Local By-Election Results : November 21st 2013

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Pontrilas on Herefordshire (Con Defence) Result: It’s Our County 429 (47% +26%), Indepdenent 261 (28% -5%), Conservative 229 (25% -21%) It’s Our County GAIN from Conservative on a swing of 16% from Ind to IOC (24% from Con to IOC) Conservatives LOSE overall control of Herefordshire County Council Golcar on Kirklees (Lab Defence) Result: Liberal Democrat 1,591 (48% +12% on 2012), Labour 901 (27% -13% on 2012), United Kingdom Independence Party 450 (13%), Green 210 (6% -5% on 2012), Conservative 189…

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Exactly six months to go: The EU elections that could make or break UKIP

Exactly six months to go: The EU elections that could make or break UKIP

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Latest EP2014 odds. UKIP now 11/10 favourites to win most votes pic.twitter.com/ldAe5G0BZA — PolPics (@PolPics) November 22, 2013 But why the absence of polling? On May 22nd next year the whole of the UK will be voting in the elections for the European Parliament yet there’s been very little media coverage and almost no polling. Whilst we have eight or nine Westminster VI polls a week you have to go back until early October to find the last EP2014 survey….

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