Archive for January, 2014

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Why Scottish LAB voters hold the key to their country’s future

Wednesday, January 29th, 2014

On Sunday we reported on the ICM poll in Scotland on September’s IndyRef which had the gap narrowing sharply. On one measure those who wanted independence were just 6% behind.

Now I’ve had a chance to look at the detail and the above findings stand out – whether voters mght change their mind broken down by which party they supported in the 2011 Holyrood elections.

On the voting question LAB voters from 2011 split 28% YES to 72%. LDs were 26-74 against while Scottish Tories were 6% to 94%.

The second question about certainty and the possibility that minds could be changed highlights the key battleground – the very large number of 2011 SLAB voters who are not totally committed to either side and say they might change their minds.

Mike Smithson

2004-2014: The view from OUTSIDE the Westminster bubble




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Suddenly what’s emerging as the key issue facing voters is not one where the Tories or Labour are setting the agenda

Wednesday, January 29th, 2014

Declining concerns about the economy take away a blue strong-point

In the latest YouGov poll Ed Miliband & Ed Balls sink to new low on who’s trusted to run economy … 24% v Cameron & Osborne on 39%; 15 point lead.

From the omnishambles of Osborne’s March 2012 budget the CON duo been increasing their crediblity on this issue while the Two Eds have been falling back.

That would be great for the blue team except for one thing – the improving economy and positive rhetoric is reducing the importance of the economy as a key issue facing voters.This is seen in the monthly Ipsos-MORI Issues Index which over four decades has established itself as the main guide to to salience.

The charts above show the changes and also the demographic breakdown of which segments are most concerned.

There’s not a lot of comfort for Labour here either which has traditionally been regarded as weaker on this than the Tories. The main beneficiary is, of course, UKIP.

The big unknown in the next fifteen months is whether support for the purples will ease off after this May’s Euro elections or will it be sustained.

Mike Smithson

Ranked as being more influential on Twitter than Rupert Murdoch AND Nadine Dorries




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Nighthawks is now open

Tuesday, January 28th, 2014

Home of the web’s best political conversation

Why not relax, and converse into the night on the day’s events in PB NightHawks.

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The round up of recent events (click on the links below, and it will bring up the relevant link)

  1. The only loser in Britain’s resurgent economy is Labour - Now George Osborne’s austerity strategy has been vindicated, Ed Balls must admit Labour’s mistakes and help the UK grow
  2. Britain’s economic recovery: unbalanced and unsustainable
  3. Growth has returned, but Labour can still win on the economy if it can answer these five questions
  4. How the Tories can win the next election
  5. These graph are ominous for Labour.
  6. LabourList readers don’t expect Miliband to win a majority in 2015
  7. 50p, deficit reduction and hiding from the long ugly.
  8. And the new Liberal Democrat Deputy Leader is……
  9. Want to defeat UKIP? Then get more working class people into politics
  10. Nigel Farage: ‘The Tories have failed; only Ukip dares cut spending on NHS and pensions’ 
  11. Truculent Tory backbenchers could be Alex Salmond’s secret weapon 
  12. Is 2014 the Year Scotland Finally Gains Independence? (H/T – TheUnionDivvie)
  13. Figures show extent of NHS reliance on foreign nationals. Thinktank warns stricter immigration rules could hit service after stats show 11% of all staff and 26% of doctors are non-British
  14. Supertramp Breakfast in America album cover in bizarre 9/11 conspiracy theory on David Icke forum
  15. Labour should target Muslims, survey finds, Conservatives Jews and Lib Dems… Buddhists. Among Christians, Anglicans are the most consistently authoritarian and conservative, while Catholics are more likely to be left-wing
  16. Council to reserve seats for citizen journalists
  17. Hillary Clinton’s Comment She Hasn’t Driven Since ’96 Is Out Of Tune With Populist Mood
  18. Ugandan President tells angry MPs: People are born gay just like albinos
  19. Iraq and Iran plot oil revolution in challenge to Saudi Arabia. Iraq’s goal of pumping 9m barrels a day of crude could be a game changer for oil prices and British companies 
  20. Star Trek Replicator Nearing Reality?
  21. If Newspaper Headlines Were Scientifically Accurate
  22. Man fights off shark, stitches up own leg, goes to the pub.
  23. In memory of backpasses (1863-1993) Before goalkeepers played like sweepers and footballers looked like athletes, there was a time when Vinnie Jones, Lee Dixon and Graeme Souness treated us to the glories of the backpass
  24. NATO says film trailers should be shorter
  25. 24’s Jack Bauer outsmarted by Only Fools and Horses’ Del Boy
  26. Tomorrow is the 158th anniversary of the establishment of the Victoria Cross.

TSE



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ComRes/ITV News poll finds the public grumpy about all the main parties

Tuesday, January 28th, 2014

Perhaps this is the backcloth for UKIP’s progress?



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YouGov, like Survation at the weekend, finds 61 percent back raising the tax rate for high earners to 50p

Tuesday, January 28th, 2014

But YouGov finds more people are opposed

We’ve now got the second poll on the Ed Balls tax plan announced on Saturday. It’s from YouGov for today’s Times and finds 61% to 26% against. The detail hasn’t been published yes but the paper reports that LAB voters are overwhelmingly supportive, while 52% cent of CON supporters are opposed.45% think the move would help the economy, 19% say it would cause damage.

Labour will be pleased that this key policy continues to poll well.

Ed Balls himself, as can be seen in the video above, came under the Paxman spotlight last night. It is worth watching to see how Balls played it because this plan is gong to be a huge GE2015 issue.

Meanwhile there was an interesting Twitter discussion on the ComRes 1% LAB lead poll with leading psephologist, Dr. Will Jennings of Southampton University, last night.

I think Jennings is right. Polling methodologies will come under much greater scrutiny in the fifteen months that remain.

Mike Smithson

2004-2014: The view from OUTSIDE the Westminster bubble




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Time for the red team to push the panic button? LAB share down 4 and lead just 1pc in latest ComRes phone poll for the Indy

Monday, January 27th, 2014

And YouGov has lead down to 2%

The monthly ComRes/Indy survey is one of just three monthly national polls remaining which use the telephone and its publication, usually at the end of the month, is always an occasion.

The latest party shares with changes on December are in the chart above and as can be seen the big move has been LAB down 4 while UKIP has gone up by the same amount. The result is that Miliband’s party now hold a lead of just 1% over the Tories something that’s likely to cause the leadership concern.

From a quick scan of all the polls the 33% LAB share appears to be the lowest for the party from any firm for three and a half years

    With any sharp movement like this we have to recognise that it could be an outlier. Last year three different pollsters at various times reported that LAB and CON were level-pegging only for the situation to revert to “normal” in following surveys.

Outlier or not perhaps the one consolation for the red team is that it is UKIP and not the Tories which is the gainer. The two parties of government remain at the same level as last month.

Even though on these numbers they would have fewer than one third of the votes cast and lead by one the Electoral Calculus seat predictor gives LAB 327 seats – an overall majority of 4.

At time of writing this post I had not seen the detailed data but it does appear that UKIP is now starting to hurt LAB quite seriously. It appears as though Farage’s party is picking up sizeable chunks of the white working class vote.

Mike Smithson

2004-2014: The view from OUTSIDE the Westminster bubble




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The battle over Labour’s planned 50 percent tax rate: Day 3

Monday, January 27th, 2014

I’ve just been on Radio 4’s the World at One talking about the polling on the 50% tax rate and Labour on the economy. I’ll post a link when it become avaiable.

The Tory attacks have been long and strong and, no doubt, this will be one of the big battles at GE2015 but just how important is managing the economy?

To my mind this from the recent Lord Ashcroft poll sets out the electoral impact. Will people vote for the party that will deliver for the country as a whole or the one they perceive as being best for themselves and their family.

I don’t have an answer.

Mike Smithson

2004-2014: The view from OUTSIDE the Westminster bubble




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Most current polling movement is between CON and UKIP with LAB and LD relatively stable

Monday, January 27th, 2014

Check out the interactive chart

Each week, as we know, YouGov carries out four polls for the Sun and one for its News International stable-mate, the Sunday Times. The result is a mass of polling data that sometimes it is hard to see the big picture.

This is the reaon why over the past few weeks I have been producing a weekly average of the party shares YouGov daily polls in order that this might be a good way of plotting trends.

The results for the first three weeks of data for 2014 are compared with the final week before polling stopped ahead of the Christmas 2013 break.

As can be seen the most consistent feature has been the LAB share which has not moved out of the range of 38%-39%. Next for consistency have been the LDs moving within a range of 9%-9.6%. The latest figure is the lowest but we it is hard to see a Rennard affect yet.

The parties seeing the biggest changes have been CON and UKIP. Generally in weeks when UKIP have been up CON has been down and vice versa.

In GE2015 terms what’s most important is the LAB share. For the Tories to have any chance of becoming top party that number has to come down.

Mike Smithson

2004-2014: The view from OUTSIDE the Westminster bubble