Archive for March, 2014

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YouGov polling blow for the man Ladbrokes make the 5-1 second favourite to be Dave’s successor

Friday, March 28th, 2014

Osbo trailed behind behind EdM, Boris, Clegg, Farage & even Balls

Although the fieldwork took place earlier in the month and before the budget it was only this week that YouGov put up the above polling on their site.

The question about how well suited X is to becoming PM is an interesting one which I can’t recall seeing before. The sample was asked for their views for each of those named in turn so it wasn’t an either/or type approach. Thus you could describe both Boris and Dave as well suited if you wished.

Notwithstanding the success of last week’s budget the polling does highlight a challenge for those backing Osborne. He can come over poorly and his excessive agression, particularly in relation to Ed Balls, does him no favours.

To be perceived in these terms is not good for his job prospects.

Mike Smithson

2004-2014: The view from OUTSIDE the Westminster bubble




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Local By-Election Results: March 27th 2014

Friday, March 28th, 2014

Stone on Dartford (Labour Defence)
Result: Lab 426 (38%), Con 397 (35%), UKIP 307 (27%)
Labour HOLD with a majority of 29 (3%)

Kilmarnock North on East Ayrshire (Scottish National Party defence)
First Preferences Result: SNP 1,334 (45% -8%), Lab 1,130 (38% +2%), Con 430 (15% +4%), Green 61 (2%)
Scottish National Party HOLD (elected on the fourth count) on a swing of 5% from SNP to Labour

St. John’s on Fylde (Independent defence)
Result: Flyde Ratepayers 804 (66%), Con 205 (17%), UKIP 100 (8%), Lib Dem 62 (5%), Greens 53 (4%)
Ratepayers WIN with a majority of 599 (49%)

Gedling on Gedling (Liberal Democrat defence)
Result: Lab 482 (32%), Lib Dem 428 (29%), UKIP 357 (24%), Con 233 (16%)
Labour GAIN from Liberal Democrat with a majority of 54 (4%)

Chalgrove and Watlington on Oxfordshire (Conservative defence)
Result: Con 871 (42% -15%), Lib Dem 629 (30% +12%), UKIP 311 (15%), Lab 159 (8% -5%), Green 116 (6% -6%)
Conservative HOLD with a majority of 242 (12%) on a swing from Con to Lib Dem of 14%

St. Anne’s on Sunderland (Labour defence)
Result: Lab 945 (48% -23% on 2011), UKIP 555 (28%), Con 345 (18% +2% on 2011), Green 120 (6%)
Labour HOLD with a majority of 390 (20%) on a swing of 26% from Lab to UKIP
Electorate: 8,493
Turnout: 23.2%



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LAB drops 4 in new YouGov Euros poll putting CON to within 4 percent

Friday, March 28th, 2014

CON EP ad on bus

The May 22 Euros are looking like a three horse race

Two worrying polls for LAB overnight. The latest YouGov GE 2015 poll has the gap down to 1% once again with LAB at 36% – it’s lowest for a long time.

Meanwhile, with less than 8 weeks to go until the May Euros, there’s another blow for LAB. The party is down 4% on two weeks ago while UKIP jump 3 to 26%.

    This means that three parties are within four points of each other and any one them could top the poll.

The LDs jump a point and must be hoping that they can remain or improve on that in order to avoid a wipe-out.

I’ve extended my betting position overnight on the Tories to secure most votes although not at the 10/1 I got last June.

My reading is that the blues stand to gain most if there’s is seepage from the purples.

Mike Smithson

Ranked in top 33 most influential over 50s on Twitter




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Local By-Election Preview : March 27th 2014

Thursday, March 27th, 2014

Stone on Dartford (Labour Defence)
Result of last election to council (2011): Conservatives 31, Labour 9, Independents 4 (Conservative majority of 18)
Result of ward at last election (2011): Emboldened denotes elected
Conservatives 713, 588, 544
Labour 642, 609, 560
English Democrats 192
Candidates duly nominated: Jim Moore (UKIP), Catherine Stafford (Lab), Stephanie Thredgle (Con)

Kilmarnock North on East Ayrshire (Scottish National Party defence)
Result of last election to council (2012): Scottish National Party 15, Labour 14, Conservatives 2, Independent 1 (No Overall Control, Scottish National Party short by 2)
Result of ward at last election (2012): Emboldened denotes elected
Scottish National Party 1,475, 263 (53%)
Labour 1,176 (36%)
Conservatives 383 (11%)
Candidates duly nominated: Jen Broadhurst (Green), Elaine Cowan (SNP), Ian Grant (Con), Scott Thomson (Lab)

St. John’s on Fylde (Independent defence)
Result of last election to council (2011): Conservatives 26, Independents 22, Liberal Democrats 3 (Conservative majority of 1)
Result of ward at last election (2011): Emboldened denotes elected
Conservatives 771, 717, 672
Independent 704
Liberal Democrat 424
Candidates duly nominated: Mark Bamforth (Flyde Ratepayers), Brenda Blackshaw (Con), Bob Dennett (Green), Carol Gilligan (Lib Dem), Timothy Wood (UKIP)

Gedling on Gedling (Liberal Democrat defence)
Result of last election to council (2011): Labour 32, Conservatives 15, Liberal Democrats 3 (Labour majority of 14)
Result of ward at last election (2011): Emboldened denotes elected
Labour 856, 855, 759
Liberal Democrats 788, 724, 711
Conservatives 706, 677, 677
Greens 143, 127, 121
Candidates duly nominated: Maggie Dunkin (Lib Dem), James Faulconbridge (Con), Claude-Francois Loi (UKIP), Lynda Pearson (Lab)

Chalgrove and Watlington on Oxfordshire (Conservative defence)
Result of last election to council (2013): Conservatives 28, Labour 12, Liberal Democrats 11, Greens 2, Independent 1 (Conservatuve majority of 2)
Result of last election in ward (2013): Conservatives 1,508 (57%), Liberal Democrats 465 (18%), Labour 330 (13%), Green 310 (12%) Conservative WIN with a majority of 1,043 (40%)
Candidates duly nominated: Paul Collins (Lab), Susan Cooper (Lib Dem), Stephen Harrod (Con), Craig Laird (UKIP), Colin Tudge (Green)

St. Anne’s on Sunderland (Labour defence)
Result of last election to council (2013): Labour 64, Conservatives 8, Independents 3 (Labour majority of 53)
Result of ward in last electoral cycle (2010 – 2012)
2010: Labour 2,263 (59%), Liberal Democrats 781 (20%), Conservatives 656 (17%), Green 151 (4%). Labour HOLD with a majority of 1,482 (39%)
2011: Labour 1,908 (71%), Conservatives 436 (16%), Green 238 (9%), Liberal Democrats 90 (3%). Labour HOLD with a majority of 1,472 (55%)
2012: Labour 1,743 (72%), Conservatives 339 (14%), Green 268 (11%), Liberal Democrats 69 (3%). Labour HOLD with a majority of 1,404 (58%)
Candidates duly nominated: Emily Blyth (Green), Aileen Casey (UKIP), Jacqui Gallagher (Lab), Tony Morrissey (Con)
(2011 result was election at which defending party councillor was last elected)



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Murdoch predicts LAB victory at GE2015

Thursday, March 27th, 2014

It’s hard to argue with his reasoning

This is where the current UKIP vote is coming from.

The idea that the purples are taking as many votes from LAB as CON is a nonsense. UKIP hurts the Tories far more than any other party as can be seen from the chart based on the aggregate of all Populus polls last month.

Add on top of that the electoral advantages that LAB has anyway and it is hard to see a CON path to victory. A win on seats might just be possible.

Mike Smithson

2004-2014: The view from OUTSIDE the Westminster bubble




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The big question is whether and how the debate impacts on voting in the Euros and GE2015

Thursday, March 27th, 2014

The LBC Leaders  Debate  Nick Clegg v Nigel Farage   YouTube (1)

Did both leaders achieve their goals?

The experience of US presidential debates and, of course, the British GE2010 is that “winning” the debate is not necessarily a good pointer to its impact on voting.

For Nigel Farage and Nick Clegg the critical upcoming election is on May 22nd – the Euros. Farage has built up expectations about a UKIP win on votes while at current polling levels it is not inconceivable that the LDs could lose all their MEPs.

Both men hope that these two debates, the second one is next Wednesday on the BBC, will reinforce their party’s positions.

    Hopefully we’ll get some new EP 2014 numbers this weekend and my reading is that both will see their parties up a notch.

For although the audience for last night wasn’t large (YouGov had to poll many thousands to find enough people to survey for their quickie poll) the media coverage will widen awareness.

The rationale for Clegg’s challenge in the first place was to try to court LAB and CON EU-backers as well as encouraging former party voters to come back on board.

Farage was always going to benefit because he had the platform and that will be helped by the YouGov instant reaction result.

My main reservation about the UKIP leader’s performance last night was his comment on Ukraine and the EU suggesting that he prefers Mr. Putin to Brussels. This is something that he might later regret. The Tories, in particular, will likely use that against him,

Mike Smithson

2004-2014: The view from OUTSIDE the Westminster bubble




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The post Nick v Nigel debate reaction

Wednesday, March 26th, 2014

The YouGov poll on who won the debate is out.

 

My own feeling is that the real loser from tonight is David Cameron and The Tories, today and next week, Nigel Farage has been given one hour to hoover up the Euro-sceptic vote.

I’ll update this thread if further polling is released.

TSE



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EU referendum poll blow for Farage only hours before the TV clash with Clegg

Wednesday, March 26th, 2014