Ukip sees 4 point drop in its projected national vote share according to the BBC
BBC announces that Provisional National Vote share in yesterday's locals was
Con 29
Lab 31
LD 13
UKIP 17
— Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) May 23, 2014
The trend in BBC National Vote share based on the May locals. Ukip down 6% on last year. pic.twitter.com/caD3KO0OzW
— Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) May 23, 2014
CORRECTION. The decline in Ukip's Projected National Share yesterday was SIX down on 2013 and not 4 as I previously Tweeted.
— Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) May 23, 2014
A bad omen for Ukip EP14 backers?
Stephen Fisher of Oxford University, one of the “brains behind the GE10 exit poll, explains that “the PNS is an attempt to estimate what the share of the vote would be if the whole of GB had local elections and if the three main Westminster parties had fielded candidates in all wards, as they do in general elections.”