Archive for August, 2014

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UKIP Clacton price the big mover in today’s political betting market report

Sunday, August 31st, 2014

LAB most seats/EdM next PM/ IndyRef NO all up as well

Inevitably given the Survation Clacton poll the big mover has been the UKIP by-election price – now rated as an 88% chance.

It is hard to see what could happen to change this and as we get closer the the date you would expect this to get tighter.

EdM for next PM and LAB most seas all up a bit and there’s been a small up-tick for an IndyRef NO.

Given the current political environment I’m planning to feature this as often as there are significant movements.

Mike Smithson

2004-2014: The view from OUTSIDE the Westminster bubble




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The devastating detail from the Survation Clacton by-election poll

Sunday, August 31st, 2014

The constituency, though, is a one-off

In all the time I have been following and analysing polls there has never been anything as sensational as the Survation Clacton poll for the Mail on Sunday published overnight. The figures are extraordinary and point to an overwhelming victory for Douglas Carswell in his new colours.

The thing we must remember is – as Rob Ford and Matt Goodwin the leading academics who have studied the UKIP surge, will tell you – that the demographics of Clacton make it in theory at least the best of all of the 650 commons seats, for Farage’s party.

In the May 22nd Euro election the Tendring Council area saw a vote split of UKIP 48%: CON 25: LAB 13: LD 2: OTH 12. The Clacton seat covers 21 of the 35 wards in the council area.

Clearly there’s speculation over where this could happen next. The main consolation for the Tories is that in any other seat conditions would not be as favourable though that doesn’t meant it won’t happen.

The dramatic UKIP victory that Survation is pointing to will make waves throughout UK politics and other CON MPs, surely, will be considering their positions. I reckon that Kettering MP, Mr Philip Hollobone, might be a possible and I’ve had a small bet at 12/1 that the seat will go UKIP next May.

Mike Smithson

2004-2014: The view from OUTSIDE the Westminster bubble




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UKIP has “44% lead in Clacton”

Saturday, August 30th, 2014

There’s what I assume is a Survation poll of Clacton voters in the Mail on Sunday. The only only info is on the front page – above.

This looks sensational.

As soon as more detail is available this will be update.

Update – we now have this from the poll

Mike Smithson

2004-2014: The view from OUTSIDE the Westminster bubble




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The weekend polls could impact on these betting prices

Saturday, August 30th, 2014

Saturday/Sunday morning is generally an interesting time for political punters – even more so when we have an absorbine by-election in the pipeline as well as the IndyRef.

I’m hoping that we might even see a Clacton poll though the timescale has been very tight. There’ve also been hints of at least one IndyRef survey and who knows what the next round of GE2015 polling is going to show.

The chart above is going to be a regular.

Mike Smithson

Ranked in top 33 most influential over 50s on Twitter




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David Herdson on what Carswell’s defection could mean for 2015

Saturday, August 30th, 2014

carswell

A by-election victory could secure a TV debate place for Farage

The defection of one MP or another towards the end of a parliament is nothing particularly unusual.  The decision of one to resign and re-contest his or her seat is.  Were it not for the vote of even greater significance taking place in Scotland next month, the Clacton by-election could have been the seminal political moment of the parliament.  Depending on the two results, it still might be.

A Scottish Yes would have such profound implications it deserves a thread of its own (before the vote), to game the likely effects on the parties, their leaders and the reaction in the country at large, to work out where any betting value may lie.  The effect of a No would be less significant though the last time the SNP failed in a referendum, they parliamentary party took a hammering at the next election.  It’s also perhaps worth noting that Alistair Darling is 11/1 with Paddy Power to be the next Chancellor and 20/1 to be next Labour leader.

If we assume a No for these purposes, then the attention of the media and of Westminster will rapidly move on to the Essex coastal constituency of Clacton.  It’s a measure of how rapidly UK politics is changing that the best odds available on UKIP at the time of writing were 1/4.  Only twice since WWII has a party other than the Tories, Labour or Lib Dems (or their predecessors) won an English by-election: George Galloway was one, earlier this parliament; Dick Taverne the other, who held his seat at the 1973 Lincoln by-election after his parting of the ways with Labour.

Those odds don’t look tempting to me.  UKIP has not made the most sure-footed of starts to their campaign with their previously selected candidate refusing to stand down.  While it’s right that they’re odds-on favourites at the moment, it wouldn’t take much to turn a spat into a shambles if they can’t sort their local aspect quickly.  Indeed, much will turn on local matters: how seriously Labour tries (both for their own sake and the indirect effect their campaign, or non-campaign, has on the Blue and Purple camps), how many of Carswell’s activists follow him across, how many UKIP activists are willing to campaign for their erstwhile opponent – and so on.

    Even so, Clacton has been described by the most favourable seat for UKIP in the country, an assertion that the European election results reinforce. 

That’s a huge advantage in this election but it’s also a huge risk: if they don’t win, it undermines any claim they have to be taken seriously next year, it would halt their current momentum and would put a hefty spring in the stride of their conquerors.  On the other hand, if they do make history and gain their first elected MP, then that removes another obstacle to Farage appearing in the leaders’ debates next year – an aspiration that should be UKIP’s number one campaign objective given UKIP’s still-developing activist base, the impact the debates had in 2010 and Farage’s distinctiveness.  For that reason alone, the odds of debates happening at all should lengthen if UKIP wins.

There is another angle to consider, that of electoral fairness.  A UKIP win, consolidating their position as the fourth major national party, would go still further to undermining the legitimacy of FPTP; a system that only really works well with two dominant parties.  I wrote in March that the Tories’ 2015 manifesto should include a commitment to introducing PR (open lists in constituencies of about five MPs would be best).  The events this week have made that all the more necessary.

David Herdson



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Carswell seems to have had an impact on the GE2015 betting markets but not Rotherham

Friday, August 29th, 2014

Maybe the weekend polls will change that?



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Local By-Election Result: August 28th 2014

Friday, August 29th, 2014

North Jesmond on Newcastle upon Tyne (Lib Dem Defence)
Result: Liberal Democrats 711 (53% +16%), Labour 320 (24% -9%), Conservative 117 (9% -9%), United Kingdom Indepdendence Party 112 (8%), Green 94 (7% -5%)
Liberal Democrat HOLD with a majority of 391 (29%) on a swing of 12.5% from Labour to Liberal Democrat

This result will be seized upon by Northern Liberal Democrats as a suggestion that the constant hammering they have been getting in recent years may be coming to an end, a case in point demonstrated very clearly during the local election coverage this year when Emily Mathias at her touchscreen showed that since the general election in 2010 Manchester’s Liberal Democrat grouping has fallen from 33 to 0, in Liverpool it has fallen from 37 to 3 and in Rochdale they have fallen from 26 to 1 so if this trend is now being reversed then could this suggest that the national trend of Labour supporting Liberal Democrats (i.e Labour in 1997, Liberal Democrats between 2001 and 2010) be coming to an end? If so, then Ed Milliband has a lot to start worrying about.



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If Boris is serious about helping his party he’d seek to be the CON candidate in Clacton

Friday, August 29th, 2014

The mayor’s the only one who could stop UKIP in its tracks

One of the big political decisions that the Tories will have to make in the next few weeks is who should be the candidate to fight UKIP defector, Douglas Carswell, in Clacton. The consequences for Cameron’s party of a UKIP victory in the seat are enormous and they have to do everything they can to stop him.

Boris Johnson has decided he wants to return to the commons and is currently trying to secure the Uxbridge nomination. But he would be helping his party far more if he took what would be a massive gamble and made himself available to fight Clacton.

We have seen in two London mayoral races that Boris has the unique appeal to reach out far beyond the Tory party’s traditional supporter base. He’s also the one CON figure who is very popular with UKIP voters.

    A Johnson candidature in Clacton, I’d suggest, would lead to a CON hold and would put him in a far better position to fight for the leadership when the time arose.

I don’t think he will – but who knows with Boris?

Peter Oborne in the Telegraph makes a strong case for Boris to stand.

The day’s big polling news

I’ve put a little bet on at 33/1.

Mike Smithson

2004-2014: The view from OUTSIDE the Westminster bubble