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Month: August 2014

PB Nighthawks is now open

PB Nighthawks is now open

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Home of the web’s best political conversation Why not relax, and converse into the night on the day’s events in PB NightHawks. If you’re a lurker, why not delurk tonight. The round up of recent events (click on the links below, and it will bring up the relevant link) A do-it-yourself election prediction kit. What’s going to happen if Labour and the Conservatives are neck-and-neck in May?.. What we can learn from the list of UKIP target seats Boris Johnson confirms…

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Away from the IndyRef – today’s Populus poll sees UKIP up 4% to a record high for the firm

Away from the IndyRef – today’s Populus poll sees UKIP up 4% to a record high for the firm

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This follows an increase in the UKIP share in the ComRes online poll for IoS/S Mirror – published at the weekend and the last YouGov poll have Farage’s party up from its average for the month of about 12% to 14%. We need to see more polls, of course, but the theory was that UKIP would fade after the May Euros and headed for GE2015. Well these numbers suggest that that is not happening. Mike Smithson 2004-2014: The view from…

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Salmond’s ICM victory in the 2nd IndyRef debate triggers a 2.5% move to YES on Betfair

Salmond’s ICM victory in the 2nd IndyRef debate triggers a 2.5% move to YES on Betfair

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But did punters misinterpret the ICM voting data? Three weeks ago during the first Salmond-Darling TV encounter the first indications that NO was having the best of it came on the Betfair betting exchange where full data on trading is made available instantly and where you are able to track it. In the two hours of the STV hosted confrontation a lot of money was traded and YES moved sharply backwards from the 22% chance position it had reached in…

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ICM has it as a decisive win for Salmond – but will his performance swing votes?

ICM has it as a decisive win for Salmond – but will his performance swing votes?

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The debate ends with the Betfair betting market unmoved. YES 13.5% chance. Now we wait for the ICM debate poll pic.twitter.com/xJiVsE52Cs — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) August 25, 2014 Guardian ICM poll – Salmond – 71% Darling – 29% Sample of 500+ — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) August 25, 2014 On the Betfair exchange the YES price edged up a notch from a 13.5% chance to a 13.8% one — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) August 25, 2014 My verdict was that Darling was less…

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Darling versus Salmond – the 2nd leg: Live discussion with regular betting updates

Darling versus Salmond – the 2nd leg: Live discussion with regular betting updates

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#Indyrefdebate Before the STV debate 3 weeks ago YES was rated by punters as 22% chance on Betfair. Now a 13.5% chance — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) August 25, 2014 #Indyrefdebate At half time punters still make YES a 13.5% chance on Betfair. No change. — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) August 25, 2014 #bbcindyref 30 minutes into the debate and YES remains a 13.5% chance on Betfair. — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) August 25, 2014 As the #Debate opens Betfair punters rate YES's…

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Ladbrokes make Salmond the favourite to “win” tonight’s debate

Ladbrokes make Salmond the favourite to “win” tonight’s debate

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Debate betting prices from Ladbrokes http://t.co/OKFhPuoEOc for tonight's Salmond-Darling BBC TV debate pic.twitter.com/SOHP52ts3N — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) August 25, 2014 Surely the SNP leader will be better prepared than last time? Tonight’s the big one in the the IndyRef campaign. With postal packs due to go out by the end of the week large numbers of Scottish voters could have cast their votes a week today. The election itself is not until September 18th but the nature of the increasingly…

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Not only will the future of the UK be determined on September 18 – but Shadsy’s bonus could be on the line

Not only will the future of the UK be determined on September 18 – but Shadsy’s bonus could be on the line

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The @LadPolitics #indyref money staked chart showing more going on YES pic.twitter.com/Gj85NQLt0S — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) August 22, 2014 Ladbrokes are betting that it’ll be NO Great article on the IndyRef betting on the PoliticalBookie – the blog of Shadsy, a PB regular and the man who runs the politics desk at Ladbrokes. Looking at the way the betting has gone and the pattern of the wagers being made Shadsy has this very revealing observation:- “..To be totally honest, we…

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Unless independence campaigners can convince the oldies in the next 3 weeks then YES, surely, is doomed

Unless independence campaigners can convince the oldies in the next 3 weeks then YES, surely, is doomed

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Like in all elections the oldies are crucial A lot has been talked about the gender effect in the September 18th Scottish referendum and today a new Survation poll of pensioners for the Sunday Post highlights the generation battle. Not only are the oldest oldies the most certain to vote they are more than two to one for NO. The charts show the certainty to vote proportions and across the older age ranges as well as their stated voting intentions….

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