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Last month YouGov had the best numbers for NO. Now it’s the best for YES. What’s tonight going to show?

September 11th, 2014

The extraordinary feature of these closing IndyRef polls is that the firms that hitherto were most favourable to NO have moved sharply to YES while those that hitherto had YES in the best positions have remained stable.

YouGov and TNS-BMRB are in the former category while Survation and Panelbase the latter.

Tonight YouGov’s latest poll for the Times and Sun is due out and it could still be showing a YES lead. If that happens then the betting money will start moving away from NO again, no doubt, there’ll be further reactions from the financial markets.

Over the weekend we are likely to get the latest ICM.

Mike Smithson

2004-2014: The view from OUTSIDE the Westminster bubble