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New marginals polling from ComRes find 5.5% CON to LAB swing

September 29th, 2014

There’s been a sharp move to LAB since last poll in June

A new ComRes / ITV News poll of the 40 most marginal Labour-Conservative constituencies, shows Labour holding an 11 point lead over the Conservatives. At the 2010 General Election the two parties were tied on 37% across these 40 seats so the swing is 5.5%

The latest figures together with comparisons on GE2010 and the last such poll by ComRes in June are shown in the chart above.

    It should be emphasised that the sample size is 1,000 people in total so on a completely different scale to the Ashcroft marginals polling that we are used to where there are samples of 1,000 in each seat.

The Ed Miliband polling paradox continues here. Despite having an 11% lead in the voting intention, 59% said Ed Miliband puts me off voting for Labour, whilst 18% said Ed Miliband encourages me to vote for Labour. 46% say I’d rather have David Cameron than Ed Miliband as Prime Minister. Whilst 33% say I’d rather have Ed Miliband than David Cameron as Prime Minister.

For those looking for further evidence for tactical voting against UKIP, 51% say I’d never consider voting UKIP, 33% say I would consider voting UKIP at the General Election next year.

When asked specifically about their constituency 51% say I’d never vote for UKIP, even if they could win in my constituency, whilst 30% I’d vote for UKIP if I thought they could win in my constituency.

There’s some good news for the Lib Dems

“In the event of a Coalition after the next election, the Liberal Democrats are preferred to UKIP as the junior partner by 42%, compared to 35% who would rather see UKIP in a Coalition. Conservatives appear split on the choice of a Coalition partner, with 47% preferring the Liberal Democrats and 40% in favour of UKIP.”

Methodology Note:

ComRes for ITV News interviewed a representative sample of 1,000 GB adults living in the 40 most marginal constituencies where the Conservatives and Labour shared first and second place between them at the last General Election in 2010. Interviews were carried out online between the 18th and 26th September 2014. Of these 40 constituencies, 25 currently have a Conservative MP and 15 currently have a Labour MP. Each constituency is represented in the sample equally, with results weighted to be representative of all adults in all 40 constituencies as a whole. Data were also weighted by past vote recall

TSE