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Month: November 2014

Until we can get a clearer fix on LAB in Scotland GE15 is almost impossible to call

Until we can get a clearer fix on LAB in Scotland GE15 is almost impossible to call

Why I’m not betting on LAB seat numbers By my reckoning LAB, based on the Lord Ashcroft polling of the marginals, could be on target to make at least 50 gains or more from CON and the LDs at GE2015. More LAB possibles might come into the frame when Lord A has polled seats with CON majorities higher up target list. The big shadow hanging over the red team is that it currently has 41 seats in Scotland many of…

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The ongoing research into who the kippers actually are and whether they hurt LAB as much as CON

The ongoing research into who the kippers actually are and whether they hurt LAB as much as CON

pic.twitter.com/w57vnDLzYt — PolPics (@PolPics) November 30, 2014 The evidence, surely, points to CON being most vulnerable On Tuesday night I was at one of my most favourite events – the annual awards dinner of the Political Studies Association where this year leading political scientists Matthew Goodwin and Rob Ford won a top prize for their study of the rise of UKIP “Revolt on the Right”. This timely work has set off a lot of debate particularly the suggestion the Farage’s…

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There’s nothing Farage could do about this this but Nick Griffin backing UKIP isn’t good news for the purples

There’s nothing Farage could do about this this but Nick Griffin backing UKIP isn’t good news for the purples

Just what Farage didn't want. Ex-MEP & BNP leader, Nick Griffin, says he's now supporting UKIP http://t.co/EYq16a4jg9 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 29, 2014 Vote #UKIP to kick Cameron…but don't be fooled by Toryboy Nigel. pic.twitter.com/GRTLaUPJqi — Nick Griffin (@nickjgriffinbnp) November 28, 2014 Meanwhile Farage’s price in Thanet S continues to weaken PaddyPower http://t.co/49a6vU4VyB ease odds further on UKIP/Farage in Thanet South betting. Was 4/11 – now 5/6 pic.twitter.com/l0M0ZNIbzU — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 29, 2014

Key seats betting round-up and news of another constituency poll where UKIP doing well

Key seats betting round-up and news of another constituency poll where UKIP doing well

Nick Clegg’s Sheffield Hallam LAB 7/2 with PaddyPower http://t.co/49a6vU4VyB in Shef Hallam following @LordAshcroft poll with Clegg just 3% ahead pic.twitter.com/lcyKAVksCY — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 29, 2014 Farage’s Thanet South Punters still backing Farage in Thanet S in spite of @LordAshcroft poll showing him 5% behind pic.twitter.com/PnHO4wVh8U — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 29, 2014 Rochester: Can Mark Reckless repeat by-election success? Chart showing where the betting money is going for Rochester & Strood at GE15 pic.twitter.com/mjHZ3Sbs4C — Mike Smithson…

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Harnessing envy and resentment could be the key to GE15

Harnessing envy and resentment could be the key to GE15

SNP GE15 seats move up nearly 2 on the Sporting Index http://t.co/56fhx8BJCR spread betting market. See latest pic.twitter.com/pduuxgRE9K — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 28, 2014 Never mind “we’re all in it together”: eat the rich (or foreigners)! Blame is of almost limitless supply in politics but that’s not to say it doesn’t retain significant value if fashioned with skill. Two policy announcements this week gave ample good indication that both Labour and the Conservatives are more than willing to make…

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The week’s Local By-Election Results : Gains for SNP, UKIP and CON

The week’s Local By-Election Results : Gains for SNP, UKIP and CON

East Riding of Yorkshire Bridlington Central and Old Town Result: UKIP 401 (31%), Conservative 352 (27%), Dealtry (Independent) 217 (17%), Dixon (Independent) 214 (16%), Tate (Independent) 116 (9%) UKIP GAIN from Social Democrat with a majority of 49 (4%) Total Independent vote: 547 (42%) Howdenshire Result: Conservative 1,020 (46%), UKIP 891 (40%), Labour 298 (13%) Conservative HOLD with a majority of 129 (6%) Willerby and Kirk Ella Result: Conservative 1,522 (56%), UKIP 699 (26%), Labour 515 (19%) Conservative HOLD with…

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There are signs that Farage could be having second thoughts about standing in Thanet S

There are signs that Farage could be having second thoughts about standing in Thanet S

pic.twitter.com/7g0LyKdhLo — PolPics (@PolPics) November 28, 2014 What current MP Tweeted yesterday “@FarageNo: @MSmithsonPB @LordAshcroft That's what happens when you don't visit the constituency in 3 months.” #desperatelyseekingNigel — Laura Sandys (@LauraSandysMP) November 27, 2014 At the PB party a week ago I was somewhat surprised at being told by at least two kippers that it wasn’t entirely certain that Nigel Farage was going to stand in the Thanet South constituency on May 7th. I, and apparently most punters, thought…

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If the LDs hold on to as many seats as the latest polling suggests then Clegg should thank NO2AV

If the LDs hold on to as many seats as the latest polling suggests then Clegg should thank NO2AV

Remember when FPTP was seen as way of preventing coalitions? Just looking through the latest constituency polling from Lord Ashcroft and one thing is apparent – the LDs look set to hang on to so many of their CON facing marginals because the AV referendum in 2011 produced a NO victory. In almost all of the seats the yellows look set to retain their vote share will be in the thirties. They’ve lost a lot of votes since the heady…

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