Why I’m not betting on LAB seat numbers
By my reckoning LAB, based on the Lord Ashcroft polling of the marginals, could be on target to make at least 50 gains or more from CON and the LDs at GE2015. More LAB possibles might come into the frame when Lord A has polled seats with CON majorities higher up target list.
The big shadow hanging over the red team is that it currently has 41 seats in Scotland many of which could now be in jeopardy following the post-IndyRef SNP surge. What is hard to get a handle on is how many are vulnerable.
For LAB could find itself chalking up a reasonable number of gains south of the border only to find these being almost offset by losses in Scotland.
I’ve been very cautious about Scottish UNS swing projections for the simple reason that the IndyRef showed very different outcomes in different parts of the country. In areas where YES came out with smaller numbers you would assume that the SNP is making less progress than those where it did well. The political landscape there has changed and national data does not suffice.
We await Lord A’s next round which hopefully will include some Scottish constituencies.