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On current polling the Tories will, surely, suffer net losses of more than 18 seats

December 5th, 2014

For the first time there’s overlap in the Commons seat spread betting

The Tories have made more progress on the SportingIndex Commos seat spread markets and the buy level is 285 MPs.

Given the polling showing number of CON held seats with majorities up to 7.8% seeing LAB leads, the threat from UKIP, and the stickiness of the yellows in CON-LD battles then securing 285 MPs seems a big ask. That’s a net loss of just 18 on where the blues stand at the moment.

The next wave of Lord A polling should focus on seats with bigger blue majorities and maybe then we’ll see the point where the Tories are holding on successfully.

We are getting very close to the point where I become a CON seller.

Mike Smithson

2004-2014: The view from OUTSIDE the Westminster bubble