LAB has 15% lead amongst 17-22 year olds – but they may not be on the register and are the least reliable supporters
LAB has 15% lead amongst 17-22 year olds in Opinium/Observer poll
LAB 41
CON 26
GRN 19
LD 6
UKIP 3
http://t.co/4MfnKNPQp4
— Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) December 27, 2014
After a battering in frecent Scottish polls Labour can take some comfort this morning from an Opinium poll of new voters across England, Scotland and Wales for the Observer that shows the party with a substantial lead. That’s fine except for THREE problems.
First Mr. Cameron has a clear lead in approval ratings from this segment. See this.
Farage bottom of Opinium approval ratings for 1st time voters
Farage -51%
Clegg -44%
Miliband -18%
Cameron -6%
— Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) December 27, 2014
The second problem is that the youngest age group has traditionally had the lowest turnout levels. This was put at 44% at GE10 compared with 65% for the electorate as a whole.
A third big problem is the new arrangement for getting on the electoral register. New additions are subject to the individual registration arrangement rather than, as before, being put on the register as part of a household.
There are worries that this might hit younger voters the most with the result that many won’t be on the register.
So far no national figures have been issued but some local authorities have put out their own data which shows the numbers markedly down. If that is the case then Labour is going to be hurt the most.