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LAB has a better than 36% chance of winning most votes on May 7th

December 28th, 2014

The Ladbrokes 7/4 is a good value bet

Betting, as I always say, is not about making predictions but deciding whether the chances of something happening are better than the odds available.

One that falls into that category at the moment is the 7/4 that Ladbrokes have on LAB winning most votes. The Tories are on 1/2.

To my mind this is an over-reaction to events in Scotland where the LAB collapse since the IndyRef amounts to only about 1% on overall GB vote shares. In terms of seats this is terrible for Team Miliband but in terms overall national vote shares it won’t have all that much impact.

There’s little doubt that we are moving into uncharted territory and I see UKIP doing very well eating into both CON and LAB vote shares in the heartlands of both main parties where it will have little impact on the seat outcome.

The polling suggests that the Tories are more vulnerable than LAB and we’ll perhaps see twice as many 2010 votes slip to Carswell’s party than from LAB.

This means, of course, that the Tories will benefit most if UKIP comes under pressure in the closing part of the campaign – but my reading is that this will happen mostly in the marginals which represent barely a fifth of the the contests.

Labour, as we’ve discussed a lot, has the benefit of the the 2010 LD switchers who are broadly staying with the red team although there has been a little seepage of late to GRN.

I make the CON or LAB most votes bet about evens for each – so the LAB 7/4 is worth a punt.

Mike Smithson

2004-2014: The view from OUTSIDE the Westminster bubble