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Month: December 2014

Well done to the main phone pollsters for now reporting England only numbers

Well done to the main phone pollsters for now reporting England only numbers

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With Scotland’s politics now operating in a very different pattern to the rest of the country I have being lobbying the main telephone posters to issue England only data with their main voting intention polls. The result is that for December we now have a full range of England phone poll data which I have reproduced in the 2 charts above. What is very striking is the very considerable difference between Ipsos-MORI and the 3 other phone posters. Quite why…

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It could be that GE2015 is determined by Scottish IndyRef NO voters who are currently undecided about GE15

It could be that GE2015 is determined by Scottish IndyRef NO voters who are currently undecided about GE15

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Chart showing how many more IndyRef NO voters than YES ones are still undecided about GE15 pic.twitter.com/T7yWQBQKpa — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) December 22, 2014 The above stats are tucked on one of the spreadsheets for the latest Scottish poll from Survation for the Daily Record. What is striking is the very different don’t know levels on Westminster voting intention between those who voted YES in the referendum and those who VOTED NO. My reading is that a significant proportion of…

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Blow for Jim Murphy as first Scottish poll following his election has LAB trailing by 24 points

Blow for Jim Murphy as first Scottish poll following his election has LAB trailing by 24 points

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New Scottish poll for D Record has SNP with a commanding lead SNP 48%  LAB 24%  CON 16% LD 5% UKIP 4%  GRN 1% http://t.co/y4VurJDCBG — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) December 22, 2014 Survation Record poll shows scale of his challenge With LAB’s fortunes on May 7th so tied up with how the party performs in what was its Scottish stronghold there’s a big blow this morning with the publication of the December Scotland poll for the Daily Record. If this were to be repeated at the General…

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BES study shows that voters in LD seats have far more trust in their MPs than those in LAB or CON constituencies

BES study shows that voters in LD seats have far more trust in their MPs than those in LAB or CON constituencies

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A bit of Xmas cheer for the LDs Earlier in the month a big divide appeared between the huge joint university initiative, the British Election Study, and Lord Ashcroft’s polling of individual CON facing LD held seats. The former pointed to disaster while aggregate data from latter’s latest batch found that the yellows were 9% ahead. The reason, of course, is that you get very different responses in these seats when you ask voters, as Lord A does, to think…

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First poll of the weekend from Opinium sees LAB lead move to 7%

First poll of the weekend from Opinium sees LAB lead move to 7%

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The trend in the fortnightly Opinium polls for the Observer pic.twitter.com/CTkxBZbi4f — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) December 20, 2014 LAB lead now 7% with Opinium LAB takes 7% lead in latet Opinium poll for Observer LAB 36+2 CON 29= UKIP 16-3 LD 6= GRN 5 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) December 20, 2014 Clegg and Miliband trail badly in latest Opinium approval rating for Observer pic.twitter.com/5LPz0hqwCJ — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) December 20, 2014 YouGov has LAB 2% ahead with, as per usual, CON in the 30s LAB 2%…

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It could be that telling the pollster that you’ll vote GREEN is a polite way of saying don’t know

It could be that telling the pollster that you’ll vote GREEN is a polite way of saying don’t know

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Look at the very high proportion of non-voters With Green growth being the polling story of the week I thought the time was right to look at where expressions of support for the party are coming from. The chart above shows the breakdown from the last batch of Lord Ashcroft’s marginals polling where there’s a big enough sample to look at subsets. For me the striking feature is the large number who did not vote for any of the main…

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Local By-Election Results : December 18th 2014

Local By-Election Results : December 18th 2014

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St. James on Kingston upon Thames (Con defence) Result: Conservative 1,123 (43%), Liberal Democrat 865 (33%), Labour 355 (14%), UKIP 206 (8%), Green 71 (3%) Conservative HOLD with a majority of 258 (10%) Ollerton on Nottinghamshire (Lab defence) Result: Labour 1,171 (56% -2%), Conservative 533 (26% +4%), UKIP 347 (17% -3%), Liberal Democrat 24 (1%, no candidate last time) Labour HOLD with a majority of 638 (31%) on a swing of 3% from Labour to Conservative