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If you were think of betting on LAB following this afternoon’s Populus 5% lead – HOLD ON

January 12th, 2015

Lord Ashcroft phone poll, just out, has the Tories 6% ahead

I can’t recall a day when two polls came out showing a diametrically picture of how the next general election is looking.

The main figures are in the chart. CON is 32% with Populus and 34% with Lord Ashcroft while Populus makes it 37% to LAB with Lord Ashcroft on 28%.

Confused? So am I. The fieldwork for both polls took place during exactly the same time period – Jan 9-11th. The only difference is that the Populus survey was online and Ashcroft by phone.

In situations like this you can only say wait for some more polling. What way are others firms going?

Both the Ashcroft national poll and the Populus online poll are new innovations since the general election so we have no hard national results to compare them with.

Mike Smithson

For 11 years viewing politics from OUTSIDE the Westminster bubble