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Another Scottish poll gives a little bit of cheer to LAB but not that much

January 19th, 2015

Survation for the Daily Record
SNP 46%-2
LAB 26%+2
CON 14%-2
LD 7%+2
UKIP 4%=

On what is set to be a very big polling day the first news we have is of a Survation poll in Scotland for the Daily Record. The numbers are above and show that the SNP still has a very big lead over Labour which would cause Miliband’s party to lose a massive number of seats.

Scotland is so important to this election because of the scale of the seats that could change hands if things follow current polling movements. Whatever the Labour party will feel happy at least that this poll is in the same direction as the Panelbase Sunday Times one yesterday.

The former has a 20 point margin while the latter a 10 point one. That of course makes quite a difference in terms of how many of the 41 seats that Labour will be defending it can hold.

Hopefully it will not be too long before we see the Lord Ashcroft single constituency polling from Scotland. A hope for Labour and the LDs, which have 11 Scottish MPs, is that in the seats that they hold then there will be a pro unionist tactical vote for the incumbent. Ashcroft might indicate whether that’s happening.

Later today we should see several big national polls which will indicate how the overall national picture for the election is looking.

Later this morning there should be Populus followed in the afternoon by the Lord Ashcroft weekly national poll which last week was showing Cameron’s party with a 6 point lead. In the evening I’m hoping for one of the main phone calls as well as the usual YouGov.

The betting markets moved sharply to the Tories last week and this has largely been sustained.

Mike Smithson

For 11 years viewing politics from OUTSIDE the Westminster bubble